Regular season

Declan Carlile

Pittsburgh Penguins · D · #72

Third-pair DDepth Defenseman?3 points and 38 blocks in 42 games in a supporting role

HT: 6'3"
WT: 190 lb
Age: 26
Shoots: L
From: Hartland, USA

64Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

3131pctl

3636pctl

6060pctl

4545pctl

League profile

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

0.073pctl

0.0218pctl

0.052pctl

0.823pctl

+566pctl

027pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

1.4%10pctl

2.1365pctl

0.1355pctl

Def Suppression?

0.4451pctl

Defenseman toolkit

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

0.9017pctl

3.6733pctl

Blocks / 100 shifts?

4.730pctl

4.980pctl

0.2757pctl

0:002pctl

1:0737pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 23 GP tracked · 6h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

48.8%42pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

56.5%79pctl

O-zone deployment?

54%69pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

16.6 min7pctl

Support received?

16.0 min90pctl

D-zone deployment?

46%31pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0315pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.2214pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.107pctl

0.84×1pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.17/gm70pctl

Pressure escape rate?

8.9%73pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs defensemen · center = median · 574 EV min

General Offense

3.1439

4.9280

Shot Setups/60?

0.6334

Chance Setups/60?

0.4227

Primary Contributions/60?

3.7738

Rebounds Created/60?

0.2132

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0034

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.4255

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.3177

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0037

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0023

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.7858

Rush Offense/60?

6.3866

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.1022

0.3163

0.1067

Deflections/60?

0.0027

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0034

Entries Finished/60?

0.2136

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.1050

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.8821

0.2123

1.6726

Retrieval Success %?

11%30

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0039

Exit Success %?

0%39

Forechecking

0.6370

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0049

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$0.78M

cap hit

$3.09M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A

Team-friendly deal (+$2.3M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Declan Carlile	64	Depth Defenseman	3 P · 42 GP	$0.78M	$3.09M	A+$2.3M	this player
Mike Reilly	68	Depth Defenseman	9 P · 42 GP	-	$4.20M	-	86%
Cody Ceci	64	Depth Defenseman	9 P · 82 GP	$4.50M	$3.09M	D−$1.4M	84%
Brayden Pachal	60	Heavy Hitter	7 P · 39 GP	$1.19M	$2.12M	B+$0.9M	83%
Radko Gudas	68	Heavy Hitter	13 P · 56 GP	$4.00M	$4.20M	C+$0.2M	83%

Chemistry

Finishes from

assisters on Declan’s goals

Creates for

goals Declan assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

0 pts · 0 G · 0 A · 6 shots in last 10Steady(+0.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs BUF

0P

0G 0A

vs BUF 02-03

0G 0A · 1 shots · 15:08 TOI

vs FLA

0P

0G 0A

vs FLA 02-05

0G 0A · 1 shots · 16:42 TOI

@ CAR

0P

0G 0A

@ CAR 02-26

0G 0A · 0 shots · 11:04 TOI

@ WPG

0P

0G 0A

@ WPG 03-05

0G 0A · 0 shots · 18:22 TOI

vs CBJ

0P

0G 0A

vs CBJ 03-10

0G 0A · 0 shots · 20:35 TOI

vs DET

0P

0G 0A

vs DET 03-12

0G 0A · 0 shots · 13:52 TOI

@ MTL

0P

0G 0A

@ MTL 04-09

0G 0A · 0 shots · 5:02 TOI

@ BOS

0P

0G 0A

@ BOS 04-11

0G 0A · 2 shots · 21:00 TOI

vs DET

0P

0G 0A

vs DET 04-13

0G 0A · 2 shots · 20:22 TOI

vs NYR

0P

0G 0A

vs NYR 04-15

0G 0A · 0 shots · 18:46 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)143 events shown

Playmaking gravity: 6 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 38 blocks · 3 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2023-24	Tampa Bay Lightning	1	0	0	0	1
2024-25	Tampa Bay Lightning	3	1	0	1	2
2025-26	Tampa Bay Lightning	42	1	2	3	5
Career	1 team	46	2	2	4	8