Regular season

Pontus Holmberg

Tampa Bay Lightning · RW · #29

Bottom-six playerDepth Forward?22 points in 70 games in a supporting role

HT: 6'0"
WT: 201 lb
Age: 27
Shoots: L
From: Vasteras, SWE
Draft: 2018 TOR · R6 #156

64Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

4747pctl

5252pctl

4646pctl

5252pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.3135pctl

0.1641pctl

0.1629pctl

1.340pctl

+163pctl

016pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

5.7%62pctl

1.8454pctl

0.2080pctl

Def Suppression?

0.4857pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

5.832pctl

4.249pctl

0.2637pctl

1.9961pctl

0:0819pctl

0:1054pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 46 GP tracked · 10h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

56.2%91pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

46.2%33pctl

O-zone deployment?

38%14pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.4 min48pctl

Support received?

17.4 min47pctl

D-zone deployment?

62%86pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0962pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.0865pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.3864pctl

0.93×18pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.13/gm86pctl

Pressure escape rate?

10.0%88pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 913 EV min

General Offense

5.7252

9.4673

Shot Setups/60?

1.5185

Chance Setups/60?

1.3887

Primary Contributions/60?

7.2361

Rebounds Created/60?

0.5967

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0028

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.7972

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.7988

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0037

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.4689

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

0.9926

Rush Offense/60?

9.2071

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.9978

1.1878

0.2675

Deflections/60?

1.8472

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.1354

Entries Finished/60?

0.8561

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.7279

Entry → Chance %?

85%86

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

0.7221

0.2037

0.5324

Retrieval Success %?

27%56

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0770

Exit Success %?

9%79

Forechecking

3.0947

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0042

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$1.55M

cap hit

$2.92M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

B

Good value (+$1.4M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Pontus Holmberg	64	Depth Forward	22 P · 70 GP	$1.55M	$2.92M	B+$1.4M	this player
Zachary L'Heureux	63	Depth Forward	5 P · 25 GP	$0.86M	$2.68M	B+$1.8M	91%
Mark Jankowski	62	Depth Forward	21 P · 68 GP	$0.80M	$2.46M	B+$1.7M	84%
Vasily Podkolzin	68	Depth Forward	37 P · 82 GP	$1.00M	$3.94M	A+$2.9M	84%
Nicholas Robertson	65	Depth Forward	32 P · 78 GP	$1.82M	$3.17M	B+$1.3M	83%

Chemistry

Top connection: Yanni Gourde · 8 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Pontus’s goals

Creates for

goals Pontus assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

2 pts · 2 G · 0 A · 16 shots in last 10Cooling off(-0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ EDM

0P

0G 0A

@ EDM 03-21

0G 0A · 1 shots · 11:00 TOI

@ CGY

1P

1G 0A

@ CGY 03-22

1G 0A · 3 shots · 14:40 TOI

vs MIN

1P

1G 0A

vs MIN 03-24

1G 0A · 0 shots · 13:57 TOI

vs SEA

0P

0G 0A

vs SEA 03-26

0G 0A · 4 shots · 12:49 TOI

vs OTT

0P

0G 0A

vs OTT 03-28

0G 0A · 0 shots · 16:05 TOI

vs NSH

0P

0G 0A

vs NSH 03-29

0G 0A · 2 shots · 11:54 TOI

vs MTL

0P

0G 0A

vs MTL 03-31

0G 0A · 3 shots · 11:15 TOI

vs PIT

0P

0G 0A

vs PIT 04-02

0G 0A · 1 shots · 11:33 TOI

vs BOS

0P

0G 0A

vs BOS 04-04

0G 0A · 2 shots · 13:20 TOI

@ BUF

0P

0G 0A

@ BUF 04-06

0G 0A · 0 shots · 8:21 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)201 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 5 of 11 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 21 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 41 blocks · 3 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2022-23	Toronto Maple Leafs	37	5	8	13	0
2023-24	Toronto Maple Leafs	54	7	10	17	11
2024-25	Toronto Maple Leafs	68	7	12	19	4
2025-26	Tampa Bay Lightning	70	11	11	22	1
Career	2 teams	229	30	41	71	16