HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Nic Dowd

Vegas Golden Knights · C · #26
Bottom-six playerDepth Forward?Energy role: 140 hits (7.7/60)
HT
6'2"
WT
195 lb
Age
36
Shoots
R
From
Huntsville, USA
Draft
2009 LAK · R7 #198
57Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
2121pctl
Playmaking?
3535pctl
Transition?
2424pctl
Defense?
8181pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.2830pctl
Goals / GP?
0.0714pctl
Assists / GP?
0.2143pctl
Shots / GP?
0.914pctl
Plus/Minus?
-442pctl
PP Points?
016pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
3.5%38pctl
ZEIS?
1.3033pctl
PSPL?
0.0624pctl
Def Suppression?
0.7581pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP
Faceoff %?
49.2%48pctl
D-Zone FO %?
50.1%54pctl
Draws / GP
12.978pctl
Take : Give?
0.4475pctl
PP TOI / GP?
0:0421pctl
PK TOI / GP?
2:1492pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 50 GP tracked · 12h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
17.2 min34pctl
Support received?
17.1 min55pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 919 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$3.00M

cap hit

$1.46M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

D

Paying a premium ($1.5M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Nic Dowd57$3.00MD$1.5Mthis player
Steven Lorentz57$1.35MC+$0.1M89%
Adam Lowry60$3.25MD$1.2M89%
Colton Sissons55$2.86MD$1.7M87%
Tim Washe57$0.81MC+$0.7M86%

Chemistry

Top connection: Jakob Chychrun · 4 goals together

Recent form · last 10 games

4 pts · 1 G · 3 A · 10 shots in last 10Steady(+0.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs EDM

0P

0G 0A

vs WSH

1P

1G 0A

vs VAN

1P

0G 1A

vs CGY

0P

0G 0A

@ EDM

0P

0G 0A

@ VAN

1P

0G 1A

@ SEA

0P

0G 0A

@ COL

0P

0G 0A

vs WPG

0P

0G 0A

vs SEA

1P

0G 1A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)400 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 2 of 5 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 17 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 58 blocks · 11 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2015-16Los Angeles Kings50001
2016-17Los Angeles Kings7061622-15
2017-18Los Angeles Kings16011-3
2017-18Vancouver Canucks40303-7
2018-19Washington Capitals648142210
2019-20Washington Capitals56781511
2020-21Washington Capitals56114154
2021-22Washington Capitals6410142410
2022-23Washington Capitals651312256
2023-24Washington Capitals64121022-2
2024-25Washington Capitals821413277
2025-26Washington Capitals5541216-6
2025-26Vegas Golden Knights201452
Career4 teams6578910819718