Regular season

Steven Lorentz

Toronto Maple Leafs · C · #18

Bottom-six playerDepth Forward?Energy role: 154 hits (11.0/60)

HT: 6'4"
WT: 219 lb
Age: 30
Shoots: L
From: Kitchener, CAN
Draft: 2015 CAR · R7 #186

57Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

2525pctl

3535pctl

2020pctl

7575pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.2525pctl

0.1023pctl

0.1528pctl

1.020pctl

-250pctl

016pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

4.1%44pctl

1.0422pctl

0.1042pctl

Def Suppression?

0.5969pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP

45.5%25pctl

D-Zone FO %?

37.9%8pctl

1.722pctl

0.5085pctl

0:012pctl

2:1493pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 42 GP tracked · 8h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

43.9%12pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

47.1%37pctl

O-zone deployment?

28%3pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.0 min22pctl

Support received?

16.6 min75pctl

D-zone deployment?

72%97pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.1179pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.6943pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.2437pctl

0.88×5pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.26/gm34pctl

Pressure escape rate?

7.1%33pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 683 EV min

General Offense

5.3643

5.8020

Shot Setups/60?

1.2370

Chance Setups/60?

0.8863

Primary Contributions/60?

6.5950

Rebounds Created/60?

0.4448

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.2685

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.7064

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.2642

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0978

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.4486

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.0531

Rush Offense/60?

6.6734

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.4425

0.7950

0.0934

Deflections/60?

1.1437

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.3582

Entries Finished/60?

1.1477

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.7077

Entry → Chance %?

62%49

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.1450

0.3561

0.7946

Retrieval Success %?

31%64

Exit Involvements/60?

0.1885

Exit Success %?

15%86

Forechecking

8.8779

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0982

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$1.35M

cap hit

$1.46M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal (+$0.1M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Steven Lorentz	57	Depth Forward	18 P · 71 GP	$1.35M	$1.46M	C+$0.1M	this player
Marc Gatcomb	55	Wrecking Ball	7 P · 49 GP	$0.90M	$1.16M	C+$0.3M	90%
Alex Turcotte	57	Depth Forward	14 P · 62 GP	$0.80M	$1.46M	C+$0.7M	89%
Nic Dowd	57	Depth Forward	21 P · 75 GP	$3.00M	$1.46M	D−$1.5M	89%
Colton Sissons	55	Depth Forward	11 P · 66 GP	$2.86M	$1.16M	D−$1.7M	88%

Chemistry

Top connection: Scott Laughton · 3 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Steven’s goals

Creates for

goals Steven assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

3 pts · 2 G · 1 A · 14 shots in last 10Steady(+0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ BOS

0P

0G 0A

@ BOS 03-24

0G 0A · 2 shots · 11:27 TOI

vs NYR

0P

0G 0A

vs NYR 03-25

0G 0A · 1 shots · 11:47 TOI

@ STL

0P

0G 0A

@ STL 03-28

0G 0A · 0 shots · 11:30 TOI

@ SJS

0P

0G 0A

@ SJS 04-02

0G 0A · 2 shots · 14:03 TOI

@ LAK

1P

1G 0A

@ LAK 04-04

1G 0A · 2 shots · 10:33 TOI

vs WSH

0P

0G 0A

vs WSH 04-08

0G 0A · 2 shots · 12:05 TOI

@ NYI

1P

1G 0A

@ NYI 04-09

1G 0A · 2 shots · 15:15 TOI

vs FLA

0P

0G 0A

vs FLA 04-11

0G 0A · 0 shots · 14:48 TOI

vs DAL

1P

0G 1A

vs DAL 04-13

0G 1A · 2 shots · 13:19 TOI

@ OTT

0P

0G 0A

@ OTT 04-15

0G 0A · 1 shots · 16:22 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)173 events shown

The office: the high slot - 3 of 7 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 14 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 51 blocks · 9 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2020-21	Carolina Hurricanes	45	2	6	8	1
2021-22	Carolina Hurricanes	67	8	5	13	0
2022-23	San Jose Sharks	80	10	9	19	-18
2023-24	Florida Panthers	38	1	2	3	-9
2024-25	Toronto Maple Leafs	80	8	11	19	6
2025-26	Toronto Maple Leafs	71	7	11	18	-2
Career	4 teams	381	36	44	80	-22