HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Jean-Gabriel Pageau

New York Islanders · C · #44
Middle-six playerFaceoff General?59.1% on 1,105 draws - possession starts with him
HT
5'11"
WT
180 lb
Age
33
Shoots
R
From
Ottawa, CAN
Draft
2011 OTT · R4 #96
67Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
5353pctl
Playmaking?
4747pctl
Transition?
2727pctl
Defense?
6767pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.4758pctl
Goals / GP?
0.2363pctl
Assists / GP?
0.2452pctl
Shots / GP?
1.126pctl
Plus/Minus?
058pctl
PP Points?
135pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
5.6%62pctl
ZEIS?
1.1427pctl
PSPL?
0.1147pctl
Def Suppression?
0.6171pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP
Faceoff %?
59.1%96pctl
D-Zone FO %?
58.6%93pctl
Draws / GP
14.986pctl
Take : Give?
0.3243pctl
PP TOI / GP?
0:2237pctl
PK TOI / GP?
2:2595pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 48 GP tracked · 13h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
17.5 min58pctl
Support received?
17.9 min31pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 953 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$5.00M

cap hit

$3.68M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

D

Paying a premium ($1.3M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Jean-Gabriel Pageau67$5.00MD$1.3Mthis player
Sam Steel65$2.10MB+$1.1M88%
Marat Khusnutdinov63$0.93MB+$1.8M84%
Oliver Kapanen68$0.93MA+$3.0M79%
Matt Savoie67$0.89MA+$2.8M79%

Chemistry

Top connection: Simon Holmstrom · 10 goals together

Recent form · last 10 games

4 pts · 2 G · 2 A · 10 shots in last 10Steady(+0.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs DAL

0P

0G 0A

vs FLA

0P

0G 0A

vs PIT

1P

0G 1A

@ BUF

0P

0G 0A

vs PHI

1P

1G 0A

@ CAR

1P

0G 1A

vs TOR

1P

1G 0A

vs OTT

0P

0G 0A

vs MTL

0P

0G 0A

vs CAR

0P

0G 0A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)473 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 7 of 17 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 11 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 59 blocks · 4 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2012-13Ottawa Senators92243
2013-14Ottawa Senators28202-5
2014-15Ottawa Senators50109194
2015-16Ottawa Senators8219244317
2016-17Ottawa Senators8212213313
2017-18Ottawa Senators78141529-14
2018-19Ottawa Senators394812-12
2019-20Ottawa Senators6024164010
2019-20New York Islanders7202-6
2020-21New York Islanders5414142810
2021-22New York Islanders771821390
2022-23New York Islanders70132740-2
2023-24New York Islanders82112233-8
2024-25New York Islanders791428424
2025-26New York Islanders741718350
Career2 teams87117622540114