Regular season

Mathew Barzal

New York Islanders · C · #13

First-line playerPlaymaker?53 assists · PSPL 0.38 - creates the danger before the shot

HT: 6'1"
WT: 186 lb
Age: 29
Shoots: R
From: Coquitlam, CAN
Draft: 2015 NYI · R1 #16

84Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

7070pctl

9090pctl

7979pctl

6666pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.8989pctl

0.2364pctl

0.6595pctl

2.382pctl

+1085pctl

2087pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

9.8%87pctl

3.3188pctl

0.3898pctl

Def Suppression?

0.4958pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP

39.8%9pctl

D-Zone FO %?

41.4%14pctl

6.546pctl

0.4579pctl

3:2893pctl

0:0217pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 52 GP tracked · 18h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

52.2%70pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

50.7%55pctl

O-zone deployment?

58%83pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.7 min73pctl

Support received?

18.3 min22pctl

D-zone deployment?

42%17pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0961pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.2271pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.3660pctl

1.00×57pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.25/gm38pctl

Pressure escape rate?

8.8%71pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1390 EV min

General Offense

5.1838

7.1338

Shot Setups/60?

1.3482

Chance Setups/60?

0.9974

Primary Contributions/60?

6.5248

Rebounds Created/60?

0.6978

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.1376

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.7369

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.4370

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0464

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.3085

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.1234

Rush Offense/60?

7.8653

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.3918

0.6030

0.0931

Deflections/60?

0.5612

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.1353

Entries Finished/60?

0.4823

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.3029

Entry → Chance %?

64%53

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.4773

0.4877

0.9964

Retrieval Success %?

32%70

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0459

Exit Success %?

3%53

Forechecking

1.8629

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0476

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$9.15M

cap hit

$9.00M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal (−$0.2M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Mathew Barzal	84	Playmaker	72 P · 81 GP	$9.15M	$9.00M	C−$0.2M	this player
Kyle Palmieri	80	Middle-Six Engine	18 P · 25 GP	$4.75M	$7.61M	A+$2.9M	86%
Leo Carlsson	87	Top-Six Threat	67 P · 70 GP	$0.95M	$10.09M	A++$9.1M	85%
Nico Hischier	85	Top-Six Threat	66 P · 82 GP	$7.25M	$9.36M	A+$2.1M	83%
Brock Nelson	84	Top-Six Threat	65 P · 81 GP	$7.50M	$9.00M	B+$1.5M	82%

Chemistry

Top connection: Bo Horvat · 13 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Mathew’s goals

Creates for

goals Mathew assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

7 pts · 1 G · 6 A · 24 shots in last 10Steady(-0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs DAL

0P

0G 0A

vs DAL 03-26

0G 0A · 1 shots · 17:48 TOI

vs FLA

0P

0G 0A

vs FLA 03-28

0G 0A · 2 shots · 17:52 TOI

vs PIT

2P

1G 1A

vs PIT 03-30

1G 1A · 3 shots · 18:21 TOI

@ BUF

1P

0G 1A

@ BUF 03-31

0G 1A · 3 shots · 20:24 TOI

vs PHI

1P

0G 1A

vs PHI 04-03

0G 1A · 1 shots · 24:06 TOI

@ CAR

1P

0G 1A

@ CAR 04-04

0G 1A · 2 shots · 16:30 TOI

vs TOR

1P

0G 1A

vs TOR 04-09

0G 1A · 4 shots · 21:36 TOI

vs OTT

0P

0G 0A

vs OTT 04-11

0G 0A · 1 shots · 22:49 TOI

vs MTL

0P

0G 0A

vs MTL 04-12

0G 0A · 4 shots · 22:40 TOI

vs CAR

1P

0G 1A

vs CAR 04-14

0G 1A · 3 shots · 19:55 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)528 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 7 of 19 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 42 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 54 blocks · 13 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2016-17	New York Islanders	2	0	0	0	-2
2017-18	New York Islanders	82	22	63	85	1
2018-19	New York Islanders	82	18	44	62	-5
2019-20	New York Islanders	68	19	41	60	5
2020-21	New York Islanders	55	17	28	45	15
2021-22	New York Islanders	73	15	44	59	-15
2022-23	New York Islanders	58	14	37	51	5
2023-24	New York Islanders	80	23	57	80	-4
2024-25	New York Islanders	30	6	14	20	10
2025-26	New York Islanders	81	19	53	72	10
Career	1 team	611	153	381	534	20