Regular season

Oliver Kapanen

Montréal Canadiens · C · #91

Middle-six playerDepth Forward?Shot-eating depth: 68 blocks in 82 games

HT: 6'2"
WT: 194 lb
Age: 23
Shoots: R
From: Timra, SWE
Draft: 2021 MTL · R2 #64

68Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

6565pctl

3636pctl

3939pctl

7575pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.4553pctl

0.2773pctl

0.1836pctl

1.658pctl

+473pctl

135pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

6.8%72pctl

1.4741pctl

0.0937pctl

Def Suppression?

0.7179pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP

45.5%25pctl

D-Zone FO %?

39.4%10pctl

8.255pctl

0.3757pctl

0:5849pctl

1:3470pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 53 GP tracked · 13h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

42.6%8pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

47.5%41pctl

O-zone deployment?

58%82pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.4 min48pctl

Support received?

17.7 min37pctl

D-zone deployment?

42%18pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0752pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.9658pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.2947pctl

0.98×46pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.43/gm4pctl

Pressure escape rate?

6.3%14pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 979 EV min

General Offense

6.5668

9.0769

Shot Setups/60?

1.0458

Chance Setups/60?

0.6743

Primary Contributions/60?

7.6066

Rebounds Created/60?

0.5563

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.1273

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.7468

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.1827

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0672

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.3184

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.2944

Rush Offense/60?

8.6465

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.3719

0.7443

0.1859

Deflections/60?

2.0279

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0632

Entries Finished/60?

0.7450

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.4955

Entry → Chance %?

67%60

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.1048

0.3156

0.8047

Retrieval Success %?

28%57

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0034

Exit Success %?

0%31

Forechecking

1.3522

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0042

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$0.93M

cap hit

$3.94M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A

Team-friendly deal (+$3.0M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Oliver Kapanen	68	Depth Forward	37 P · 82 GP	$0.93M	$3.94M	A+$3.0M	this player
Matt Savoie	67	Depth Forward	37 P · 82 GP	$0.89M	$3.68M	A+$2.8M	87%
Kirby Dach	67	Depth Forward	15 P · 37 GP	$3.36M	$3.68M	C+$0.3M	84%
Ridly Greig	67	Depth Forward	35 P · 77 GP	$3.25M	$3.68M	C+$0.4M	82%
Jordan Staal	70	Depth Forward	36 P · 75 GP	$2.92M	$4.50M	B+$1.6M	81%

Chemistry

Top connection: Ivan Demidov · 17 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Oliver’s goals

Creates for

goals Oliver assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

0 pts · 0 G · 0 A · 10 shots in last 10Steady(+0.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ CAR

0P

0G 0A

@ CAR 03-29

0G 0A · 1 shots · 15:41 TOI

@ TBL

0P

0G 0A

@ TBL 03-31

0G 0A · 1 shots · 14:30 TOI

@ NYR

0P

0G 0A

@ NYR 04-02

0G 0A · 0 shots · 11:54 TOI

@ NJD

0P

0G 0A

@ NJD 04-04

0G 0A · 3 shots · 14:33 TOI

vs NJD

0P

0G 0A

vs NJD 04-05

0G 0A · 2 shots · 13:22 TOI

vs FLA

0P

0G 0A

vs FLA 04-07

0G 0A · 1 shots · 11:26 TOI

vs TBL

0P

0G 0A

vs TBL 04-09

0G 0A · 1 shots · 13:03 TOI

vs CBJ

0P

0G 0A

vs CBJ 04-11

0G 0A · 0 shots · 12:34 TOI

@ NYI

0P

0G 0A

@ NYI 04-12

0G 0A · 0 shots · 10:31 TOI

@ PHI

0P

0G 0A

@ PHI 04-14

0G 0A · 1 shots · 12:16 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)441 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 10 of 22 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 18 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 73 blocks · 7 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2024-25	Montréal Canadiens	18	0	2	2	-5
2025-26	Montréal Canadiens	82	22	15	37	4
Career	1 team	100	22	17	39	-1