Regular season

Matthew Schaefer

New York Islanders · D · #48

Top-pair DOffensive QB?59 points from the blue line - runs the attack

HT: 6'2"
WT: 186 lb
Age: 18
Shoots: L
From: Hamilton, CAN
Draft: 2025 NYI · R1 #1

85Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

9292pctl

8989pctl

9393pctl

5858pctl

League profile

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

0.7292pctl

0.2899pctl

0.4490pctl

2.798pctl

+1382pctl

1892pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

6.2%66pctl

5.4699pctl

0.3798pctl

Def Suppression?

0.7380pctl

Defenseman toolkit

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

1.3556pctl

3.2922pctl

Blocks / 100 shifts?

5.036pctl

1.220pctl

0.4290pctl

3:1996pctl

1:0636pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 52 GP tracked · 22h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

49.4%48pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

50.6%55pctl

O-zone deployment?

54%70pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.8 min77pctl

Support received?

17.1 min57pctl

D-zone deployment?

46%30pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.1069pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.6239pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.5488pctl

1.06×89pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.35/gm12pctl

Pressure escape rate?

7.1%33pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs defensemen · center = median · 1663 EV min

General Offense

5.1284

5.3090

Shot Setups/60?

0.8760

Chance Setups/60?

0.7969

Primary Contributions/60?

5.9982

Rebounds Created/60?

0.2943

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0030

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.3646

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.1447

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0033

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.1875

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.9570

Rush Offense/60?

8.1288

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.5485

0.6592

0.1173

Deflections/60?

0.2284

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0453

Entries Finished/60?

0.2953

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.1876

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

2.2731

0.5467

1.7324

Retrieval Success %?

24%79

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0467

Exit Success %?

2%73

Forechecking

0.2223

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0048

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$0.97M

cap hit

$10.05M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A+

Massive surplus value (+$9.1M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Matthew Schaefer	85	Offensive QB	59 P · 82 GP	$0.97M	$10.05M	A++$9.1M	this player
Roman Josi	86	Offensive QB	55 P · 68 GP	$9.06M	$10.44M	B+$1.4M	95%
Jakob Chychrun	85	Offensive QB	60 P · 80 GP	$9.00M	$10.05M	B+$1.1M	92%
Adam Fox	87	Offensive QB	53 P · 55 GP	$9.50M	$10.84M	B+$1.3M	91%
John Carlson	84	Offensive QB	60 P · 71 GP	$8.00M	$9.66M	B+$1.7M	88%

Chemistry

Top connection: Bo Horvat · 19 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Matthew’s goals

Creates for

goals Matthew assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

7 pts · 1 G · 6 A · 35 shots in last 10Cooling off(-0.6 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs DAL

2P

0G 2A

vs DAL 03-26

0G 2A · 3 shots · 26:38 TOI

vs FLA

2P

0G 2A

vs FLA 03-28

0G 2A · 5 shots · 27:51 TOI

vs PIT

0P

0G 0A

vs PIT 03-30

0G 0A · 4 shots · 22:14 TOI

@ BUF

1P

0G 1A

@ BUF 03-31

0G 1A · 4 shots · 29:40 TOI

vs PHI

0P

0G 0A

vs PHI 04-03

0G 0A · 2 shots · 28:43 TOI

@ CAR

1P

0G 1A

@ CAR 04-04

0G 1A · 1 shots · 27:11 TOI

vs TOR

1P

1G 0A

vs TOR 04-09

1G 0A · 3 shots · 24:50 TOI

vs OTT

0P

0G 0A

vs OTT 04-11

0G 0A · 4 shots · 24:56 TOI

vs MTL

0P

0G 0A

vs MTL 04-12

0G 0A · 4 shots · 28:01 TOI

vs CAR

0P

0G 0A

vs CAR 04-14

0G 0A · 5 shots · 24:13 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)677 events shown

The office: the right circle - 8 of 23 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 40 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 110 blocks · 24 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2025-26	New York Islanders	82	23	36	59	13
Career	1 team	82	23	36	59	13