Regular season

Justin Sourdif

Washington Capitals · C · #34

Middle-six playerDepth Forward?35 points in 78 games in a supporting role

HT: 6'0"
WT: 195 lb
Age: 24
Shoots: R
From: Richmond, CAN
Draft: 2020 FLA · R3 #87

68Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

5151pctl

5757pctl

4747pctl

5454pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.4552pctl

0.1951pctl

0.2654pctl

1.445pctl

+1793pctl

346pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

6%64pctl

1.7752pctl

0.1667pctl

Def Suppression?

0.4047pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP

45.9%28pctl

D-Zone FO %?

50.0%52pctl

8.859pctl

0.3864pctl

1:0151pctl

0:0831pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 48 GP tracked · 12h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

52.1%69pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

59.5%89pctl

O-zone deployment?

39%16pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.4 min45pctl

Support received?

17.8 min34pctl

D-zone deployment?

61%84pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0317pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.3778pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.3967pctl

1.01×63pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.24/gm42pctl

Pressure escape rate?

7.0%30pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1061 EV min

General Offense

4.9232

7.0737

Shot Setups/60?

0.8543

Chance Setups/60?

0.7449

Primary Contributions/60?

5.7733

Rebounds Created/60?

0.2826

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0653

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.4030

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.2334

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0670

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.1764

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.1938

Rush Offense/60?

7.3544

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.7456

0.7443

0.2369

Deflections/60?

1.7570

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.2373

Entries Finished/60?

0.6845

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.4041

Entry → Chance %?

58%39

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.5877

0.4067

1.1975

Retrieval Success %?

25%48

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0034

Exit Success %?

0%30

Forechecking

2.0934

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0042

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$0.82M

cap hit

$3.94M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A

Team-friendly deal (+$3.1M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Justin Sourdif	68	Depth Forward	35 P · 78 GP	$0.82M	$3.94M	A+$3.1M	this player
Sean Couturier	69	Depth Forward	36 P · 78 GP	$7.75M	$4.22M	F−$3.5M	87%
Shane Wright	65	Depth Forward	27 P · 74 GP	$0.89M	$3.17M	A+$2.3M	86%
Michael Misa	70	Depth Forward	21 P · 45 GP	$0.97M	$4.50M	A+$3.5M	85%
Pius Suter	67	Depth Forward	29 P · 64 GP	$4.13M	$3.68M	C−$0.4M	85%

Chemistry

Top connection: Connor McMichael · 9 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Justin’s goals

Creates for

goals Justin assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

5 pts · 1 G · 4 A · 9 shots in last 10Steady(-0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ UTA

0P

0G 0A

@ UTA 03-26

0G 0A · 0 shots · 14:30 TOI

@ VGK

2P

1G 1A

@ VGK 03-28

1G 1A · 4 shots · 17:34 TOI

vs PHI

0P

0G 0A

vs PHI 03-31

0G 0A · 1 shots · 19:16 TOI

@ NJD

0P

0G 0A

@ NJD 04-02

0G 0A · 0 shots · 15:22 TOI

vs BUF

1P

0G 1A

vs BUF 04-04

0G 1A · 0 shots · 15:25 TOI

@ NYR

0P

0G 0A

@ NYR 04-05

0G 0A · 2 shots · 15:29 TOI

@ TOR

1P

0G 1A

@ TOR 04-08

0G 1A · 1 shots · 12:54 TOI

@ PIT

1P

0G 1A

@ PIT 04-11

0G 1A · 0 shots · 17:54 TOI

vs PIT

0P

0G 0A

vs PIT 04-12

0G 0A · 1 shots · 13:06 TOI

@ CBJ

0P

0G 0A

@ CBJ 04-14

0G 0A · 0 shots · 16:05 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)429 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 7 of 15 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 19 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 49 blocks · 9 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2023-24	Florida Panthers	3	0	0	0	0
2024-25	Florida Panthers	1	1	0	1	1
2025-26	Washington Capitals	78	15	20	35	17
Career	2 teams	82	16	20	36	18