Regular season

Bryan Rust

Pittsburgh Penguins · RW · #17

First-line playerDual Threat?29G + 36A - elite at finishing and creating (top ~10% of forwards in both)

HT: 5'11"
WT: 202 lb
Age: 34
Shoots: R
From: Pontiac, USA
Draft: 2010 PIT · R3 #80

86Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

8686pctl

8787pctl

7272pctl

6363pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.9090pctl

0.4090pctl

0.5088pctl

2.588pctl

058pctl

2492pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

11.5%94pctl

2.5374pctl

0.4199pctl

Def Suppression?

0.7682pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

7.671pctl

1.515pctl

0.1710pctl

2.9687pctl

3:2192pctl

1:3687pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 45 GP tracked · 15h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

49.4%47pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

53.4%68pctl

O-zone deployment?

59%84pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

18.1 min95pctl

Support received?

18.9 min9pctl

D-zone deployment?

41%16pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.1896pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

2.3397pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.6494pctl

0.97×38pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.29/gm25pctl

Pressure escape rate?

6.4%17pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1080 EV min

General Offense

6.3363

9.1170

Shot Setups/60?

0.9450

Chance Setups/60?

0.8359

Primary Contributions/60?

7.2862

Rebounds Created/60?

0.5663

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.1170

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.3928

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.2845

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0670

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0631

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.6765

Rush Offense/60?

8.3361

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.6141

1.0068

0.1139

Deflections/60?

2.2886

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0018

Entries Finished/60?

0.4421

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.3334

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.1148

0.0616

1.0668

Retrieval Success %?

5%12

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0034

Exit Success %?

0%30

Forechecking

1.4423

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0042

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$5.13M

cap hit

$9.72M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A+

Massive surplus value (+$4.6M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Bryan Rust	86	Dual Threat	65 P · 72 GP	$5.13M	$9.72M	A++$4.6M	this player
Rickard Rakell	84	Top-Six Threat	48 P · 60 GP	$5.00M	$9.00M	A+$4.0M	88%
Mikko Rantanen	90	Top-Six Threat	77 P · 64 GP	$12.00M	$11.21M	D−$0.8M	86%
William Nylander	91	Top-Six Threat	79 P · 65 GP	$11.50M	$12.02M	C+$0.5M	86%
Zach Hyman	85	Sniper	52 P · 58 GP	$5.50M	$9.36M	A+$3.9M	84%

Chemistry

Top connection: Sidney Crosby · 21 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Bryan’s goals

Creates for

goals Bryan assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

9 pts · 3 G · 6 A · 21 shots in last 10Steady(-0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs CAR

1P

0G 1A

vs CAR 03-22

0G 1A · 4 shots · 19:07 TOI

vs COL

1P

0G 1A

vs COL 03-24

0G 1A · 3 shots · 21:40 TOI

@ OTT

1P

0G 1A

@ OTT 03-26

0G 1A · 4 shots · 20:32 TOI

vs DAL

0P

0G 0A

vs DAL 03-28

0G 0A · 2 shots · 21:33 TOI

@ NYI

2P

1G 1A

@ NYI 03-30

1G 1A · 1 shots · 18:41 TOI

@ TBL

1P

0G 1A

@ TBL 04-02

0G 1A · 1 shots · 18:05 TOI

vs FLA

0P

0G 0A

vs FLA 04-04

0G 0A · 1 shots · 15:16 TOI

vs FLA

2P

1G 1A

vs FLA 04-05

1G 1A · 3 shots · 18:50 TOI

@ NJD

1P

1G 0A

@ NJD 04-09

1G 0A · 2 shots · 16:21 TOI

@ WSH

0P

0G 0A

@ WSH 04-12

0G 0A · 0 shots · 20:21 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)352 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 9 of 29 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 31 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 82 blocks · 3 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2014-15	Pittsburgh Penguins	14	1	1	2	-3
2015-16	Pittsburgh Penguins	41	4	7	11	1
2016-17	Pittsburgh Penguins	57	15	13	28	4
2017-18	Pittsburgh Penguins	69	13	25	38	11
2018-19	Pittsburgh Penguins	72	18	17	35	10
2019-20	Pittsburgh Penguins	55	27	29	56	14
2020-21	Pittsburgh Penguins	56	22	20	42	9
2021-22	Pittsburgh Penguins	60	24	34	58	7
2022-23	Pittsburgh Penguins	81	20	26	46	-4
2023-24	Pittsburgh Penguins	62	28	28	56	10
2024-25	Pittsburgh Penguins	71	31	34	65	-21
2025-26	Pittsburgh Penguins	72	29	36	65	0
Career	1 team	710	232	270	502	38