HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Erik Karlsson

Pittsburgh Penguins · D · #65
Second-pair DOffensive QB?66 points from the blue line - runs the attack
HT
6'0"
WT
185 lb
Age
36
Shoots
R
From
Landsbro, SWE
Draft
2008 OTT · R1 #15
81Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
8888pctl
Playmaking?
8585pctl
Transition?
9090pctl
Defense?
3636pctl

League profile

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.8896pctl
Goals / GP?
0.2095pctl
Assists / GP?
0.6896pctl
Shots / GP?
2.395pctl
Plus/Minus?
+874pctl
PP Points?
2697pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
4.7%52pctl
ZEIS?
4.3596pctl
PSPL?
0.2080pctl
Def Suppression?
0.1718pctl

Defenseman toolkit

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP
Blocks / GP?
0.8512pctl
Blocks / 60?
2.161pctl
Hits / 60?
0.75pctl
Take : Give?
0.3683pctl
PP TOI / GP?
3:2197pctl
PK TOI / GP?
1:5263pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 47 GP tracked · 19h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
17.9 min87pctl
Support received?
17.0 min58pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs defensemen · center = median · 1379 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$11.50M

cap hit

$8.53M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

F

Well above market ($3.0M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Erik Karlsson81$11.50MF$3.0Mthis player
Rasmus Dahlin82$11.00MD$2.1M92%
Zach Werenski83$9.58MC$0.3M90%
Evan Bouchard83$10.50MD$1.2M90%
Josh Morrissey80$6.25MB+$1.9M89%

Recent form · last 10 games

12 pts · 4 G · 8 A · 25 shots in last 10Steady(+0.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs COL

0P

0G 0A

@ OTT

3P

1G 2A

vs DAL

3P

1G 2A

@ NYI

0P

0G 0A

vs DET

0P

0G 0A

@ TBL

0P

0G 0A

vs FLA

4P

1G 3A

vs FLA

0P

0G 0A

@ NJD

2P

1G 1A

@ WSH

0P

0G 0A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)573 events shown

The office: the left circle - 5 of 15 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 39 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 65 blocks · 21 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2009-10Ottawa Senators6052126-5
2010-11Ottawa Senators75133245-30
2011-12Ottawa Senators8119597816
2012-13Ottawa Senators1768148
2013-14Ottawa Senators82205474-15
2014-15Ottawa Senators822145667
2015-16Ottawa Senators82166682-2
2016-17Ottawa Senators7717547110
2017-18Ottawa Senators7195362-25
2018-19San Jose Sharks53342456
2019-20San Jose Sharks5663440-15
2020-21San Jose Sharks5281422-18
2021-22San Jose Sharks50102535-14
2022-23San Jose Sharks822576101-26
2023-24Pittsburgh Penguins821145564
2024-25Pittsburgh Penguins82114253-24
2025-26Pittsburgh Penguins751551668
Career3 teams1159215721936-115