Regular season

Matt Coronato

Calgary Flames · RW · #27

Middle-six playerMiddle-Six Engine?Reliable minutes: 45 points and honest two-way play

HT: 5'10"
WT: 183 lb
Age: 23
Shoots: R
From: Greenlawn, USA
Draft: 2021 CGY · R1 #13

75Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

6767pctl

7272pctl

8787pctl

3131pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.5665pctl

0.2361pctl

0.3468pctl

2.586pctl

-292pctl

1580pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

10.2%89pctl

4.4897pctl

0.2386pctl

Def Suppression?

0.1819pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

8.987pctl

1.08pctl

0.3461pctl

1.0312pctl

2:4777pctl

0:0133pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 51 GP tracked · 14h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

45.1%17pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

46.4%34pctl

O-zone deployment?

57%81pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.6 min68pctl

Support received?

17.8 min34pctl

D-zone deployment?

43%19pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.1382pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.3175pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.4779pctl

1.00×57pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.33/gm17pctl

Pressure escape rate?

8.7%68pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1109 EV min

General Offense

8.1787

10.3984

Shot Setups/60?

1.4184

Chance Setups/60?

1.1985

Primary Contributions/60?

9.5888

Rebounds Created/60?

0.7079

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0552

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.7671

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.4370

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0036

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.3889

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.8975

Rush Offense/60?

11.8588

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.7052

0.6029

0.3282

Deflections/60?

0.8723

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0018

Entries Finished/60?

1.6890

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.9287

Entry → Chance %?

55%36

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.0846

0.3257

0.7643

Retrieval Success %?

30%62

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0564

Exit Success %?

5%65

Forechecking

1.0816

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0042

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$6.50M

cap hit

$5.99M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal (−$0.5M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Matt Coronato	75	Middle-Six Engine	45 P · 80 GP	$6.50M	$5.99M	C−$0.5M	this player
Nikolaj Ehlers	82	Middle-Six Engine	71 P · 82 GP	$8.50M	$8.30M	C−$0.2M	87%
Jared McCann	79	Middle-Six Engine	40 P · 52 GP	$5.00M	$7.28M	A+$2.3M	86%
Brock Boeser	77	Middle-Six Engine	48 P · 75 GP	$7.25M	$6.62M	C−$0.6M	86%
Mason Marchment	78	Middle-Six Engine	45 P · 68 GP	$4.50M	$6.95M	A+$2.4M	85%

Chemistry

Top connection: Morgan Frost · 14 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Matt’s goals

Creates for

goals Matt assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

10 pts · 2 G · 8 A · 22 shots in last 10Steady(+0.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs ANA

1P

0G 1A

vs ANA 03-26

0G 1A · 3 shots · 15:38 TOI

vs VAN

3P

1G 2A

vs VAN 03-28

1G 2A · 1 shots · 15:42 TOI

@ COL

0P

0G 0A

@ COL 03-30

0G 0A · 2 shots · 15:00 TOI

@ VGK

0P

0G 0A

@ VGK 04-02

0G 0A · 2 shots · 15:34 TOI

@ ANA

1P

0G 1A

@ ANA 04-04

0G 1A · 1 shots · 15:11 TOI

@ DAL

1P

0G 1A

@ DAL 04-07

0G 1A · 3 shots · 17:17 TOI

@ COL

1P

0G 1A

@ COL 04-09

0G 1A · 5 shots · 19:15 TOI

@ SEA

1P

0G 1A

@ SEA 04-11

0G 1A · 0 shots · 16:33 TOI

vs UTA

1P

1G 0A

vs UTA 04-12

1G 0A · 3 shots · 17:28 TOI

vs LAK

1P

0G 1A

vs LAK 04-16

0G 1A · 2 shots · 19:24 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)412 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 5 of 18 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 33 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 25 blocks · 8 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2022-23	Calgary Flames	1	0	0	0	1
2023-24	Calgary Flames	34	3	6	9	-15
2024-25	Calgary Flames	77	24	23	47	6
2025-26	Calgary Flames	80	18	27	45	-29
Career	1 team	192	45	56	101	-37