HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Dylan Larkin

Detroit Red Wings · C · #71
First-line playerSniper?34 goals on 34.2 expected - a volume shooter
HT
6'1"
WT
204 lb
Age
30
Shoots
L
From
Waterford, USA
Draft
2014 DET · R1 #15
86Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
9090pctl
Playmaking?
8282pctl
Transition?
8989pctl
Defense?
3030pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.9190pctl
Goals / GP?
0.4695pctl
Assists / GP?
0.4581pctl
Shots / GP?
3.196pctl
Plus/Minus?
+370pctl
PP Points?
2492pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
14.8%99pctl
ZEIS?
4.0594pctl
PSPL?
0.3195pctl
Def Suppression?
0.2425pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP
Faceoff %?
52.9%73pctl
D-Zone FO %?
50.3%56pctl
Draws / GP
20.299pctl
Take : Give?
0.2726pctl
PP TOI / GP?
3:1689pctl
PK TOI / GP?
1:3169pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 44 GP tracked · 15h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
18.3 min100pctl
Support received?
18.9 min8pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1140 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$8.70M

cap hit

$9.72M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

B

Good value (+$1.0M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Dylan Larkin86$8.70MB+$1.0Mthis player
Connor Bedard89$0.95MA++$9.9M92%
Mika Zibanejad87$8.50MB+$1.6M88%
Steven Stamkos83$8.00MC+$0.6M87%
Sebastian Aho86$9.75MC$0.0M87%

Recent form · last 10 games

11 pts · 5 G · 6 A · 33 shots in last 10Heating up(+1.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ BUF

1P

0G 1A

vs PHI

0P

0G 0A

@ PIT

1P

1G 0A

@ PHI

0P

0G 0A

@ NYR

0P

0G 0A

vs MIN

1P

0G 1A

vs CBJ

2P

1G 1A

vs PHI

4P

3G 1A

vs NJD

2P

0G 2A

@ TBL

0P

0G 0A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)818 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 13 of 34 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 32 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 42 blocks · 7 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2015-16Detroit Red Wings8023224511
2016-17Detroit Red Wings80171532-28
2017-18Detroit Red Wings82164763-9
2018-19Detroit Red Wings76324173-6
2019-20Detroit Red Wings71193453-21
2020-21Detroit Red Wings4491423-14
2021-22Detroit Red Wings71313869-18
2022-23Detroit Red Wings80324779-7
2023-24Detroit Red Wings683336695
2024-25Detroit Red Wings82304070-16
2025-26Detroit Red Wings743433673
Career1 team808276367643-100