HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Alex DeBrincat

Detroit Red Wings · RW · #93
EliteDual Threat?41G + 44A - elite at finishing and creating (top ~10% of forwards in both)
HT
5'8"
WT
180 lb
Age
28
Shoots
R
From
Farmington Hills, USA
Draft
2016 CHI · R2 #39
91Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
9191pctl
Playmaking?
8989pctl
Transition?
9292pctl
Defense?
6565pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
1.0494pctl
Goals / GP?
0.5097pctl
Assists / GP?
0.5491pctl
Shots / GP?
3.598pctl
Plus/Minus?
+882pctl
PP Points?
2391pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
14.5%99pctl
ZEIS?
5.3799pctl
PSPL?
0.4299pctl
Def Suppression?
0.4654pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP
Shots / 60?
11.499pctl
Hits / 60?
1.516pctl
Take : Give?
0.4986pctl
Blocks / 60?
1.5438pctl
PP TOI / GP?
3:2092pctl
PK TOI / GP?
0:0242pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 51 GP tracked · 16h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
17.9 min88pctl
Support received?
18.7 min11pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1242 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$7.88M

cap hit

$12.02M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A+

Massive surplus value (+$4.1M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Alex DeBrincat91$7.88MA++$4.1Mthis player
Matt Boldy92$7.00MA++$5.8M89%
William Nylander91$11.50MC+$0.5M86%
Bryan Rust86$5.13MA++$4.6M84%
Brady Tkachuk87$8.21MB+$1.9M84%

Recent form · last 10 games

8 pts · 5 G · 3 A · 34 shots in last 10Steady(+0.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs PHI

1P

1G 0A

@ PIT

0P

0G 0A

@ PHI

2P

2G 0A

@ NYR

0P

0G 0A

vs MIN

1P

0G 1A

vs CBJ

1P

0G 1A

vs PHI

1P

1G 0A

vs NJD

0P

0G 0A

@ TBL

1P

1G 0A

@ FLA

1P

0G 1A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)584 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 13 of 41 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 43 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 44 blocks · 18 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2017-18Chicago Blackhawks822824526
2018-19Chicago Blackhawks824135760
2019-20Chicago Blackhawks70182745-10
2020-21Chicago Blackhawks523224563
2021-22Chicago Blackhawks82413778-13
2022-23Ottawa Senators82273966-31
2023-24Detroit Red Wings822740671
2024-25Detroit Red Wings82393170-13
2025-26Detroit Red Wings824144858
Career3 teams696294301595-49