Regular season

Lucas Raymond

Detroit Red Wings · LW · #23

First-line playerPlaymaker?51 assists · PSPL 0.32 - creates the danger before the shot

HT: 5'11"
WT: 186 lb
Age: 24
Shoots: R
From: Gothenburg, SWE
Draft: 2020 DET · R1 #4

85Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

7171pctl

8989pctl

8181pctl

4848pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.9592pctl

0.3181pctl

0.6495pctl

2.277pctl

+163pctl

2795pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

7.9%79pctl

3.8093pctl

0.3296pctl

Def Suppression?

0.3236pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

6.956pctl

1.718pctl

0.4176pctl

1.1517pctl

3:1589pctl

0:1356pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 51 GP tracked · 16h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

48.5%39pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

41.5%19pctl

O-zone deployment?

47%37pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

18.1 min96pctl

Support received?

19.0 min6pctl

D-zone deployment?

53%63pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0965pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.8954pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.2844pctl

1.04×83pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.22/gm50pctl

Pressure escape rate?

11.7%98pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1227 EV min

General Offense

5.6751

7.2441

Shot Setups/60?

1.1770

Chance Setups/60?

0.8359

Primary Contributions/60?

6.8555

Rebounds Created/60?

0.4955

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.1579

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.5446

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.2947

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0036

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0528

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.2742

Rush Offense/60?

9.6476

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.1510

0.2010

0.1034

Deflections/60?

0.7317

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0528

Entries Finished/60?

1.0878

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.5463

Entry → Chance %?

50%23

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

0.8326

0.2953

0.5423

Retrieval Success %?

35%74

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0033

Exit Success %?

0%30

Forechecking

1.8127

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0577

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$8.07M

cap hit

$9.36M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

B

Good value (+$1.3M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Lucas Raymond	85	Playmaker	76 P · 80 GP	$8.07M	$9.36M	B+$1.3M	this player
Kirill Marchenko	85	Top-Six Threat	67 P · 76 GP	$3.85M	$9.36M	A++$5.5M	88%
Mitch Marner	84	Playmaker	80 P · 81 GP	$12.00M	$9.00M	F−$3.0M	87%
Troy Terry	85	Top-Six Threat	57 P · 61 GP	$7.00M	$9.36M	A+$2.4M	86%
Brady Tkachuk	87	Dual Threat	59 P · 60 GP	$8.21M	$10.09M	B+$1.9M	85%

Chemistry

Top connection: Dylan Larkin · 28 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Lucas’s goals

Creates for

goals Lucas assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

6 pts · 2 G · 4 A · 22 shots in last 10Steady(+0.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs PHI

1P

1G 0A

vs PHI 03-28

1G 0A · 2 shots · 19:53 TOI

@ PIT

0P

0G 0A

@ PIT 03-31

0G 0A · 1 shots · 13:54 TOI

@ PHI

1P

1G 0A

@ PHI 04-02

1G 0A · 3 shots · 20:14 TOI

@ NYR

0P

0G 0A

@ NYR 04-04

0G 0A · 2 shots · 19:53 TOI

vs MIN

1P

0G 1A

vs MIN 04-05

0G 1A · 3 shots · 17:25 TOI

vs CBJ

0P

0G 0A

vs CBJ 04-07

0G 0A · 3 shots · 20:33 TOI

vs PHI

2P

0G 2A

vs PHI 04-09

0G 2A · 4 shots · 17:08 TOI

vs NJD

1P

0G 1A

vs NJD 04-11

0G 1A · 0 shots · 19:54 TOI

@ TBL

0P

0G 0A

@ TBL 04-13

0G 0A · 0 shots · 18:04 TOI

@ FLA

0P

0G 0A

@ FLA 04-15

0G 0A · 4 shots · 15:57 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)370 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 9 of 25 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 35 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 32 blocks · 7 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2021-22	Detroit Red Wings	82	23	34	57	-32
2022-23	Detroit Red Wings	74	17	28	45	-17
2023-24	Detroit Red Wings	82	31	41	72	-12
2024-25	Detroit Red Wings	82	27	53	80	-15
2025-26	Detroit Red Wings	80	25	51	76	1
Career	1 team	400	123	207	330	-75