Regular season

Nicholas Robertson

Pittsburgh Penguins · LW · #14

Middle-six playerDepth Forward?32 points in 78 games in a supporting role

HT: 5'9"
WT: 180 lb
Age: 24
Shoots: L
From: Pasadena, USA
Draft: 2019 TOR · R2 #53

65Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

5151pctl

4141pctl

4141pctl

4949pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.4148pctl

0.2157pctl

0.2141pctl

1.659pctl

-1315pctl

450pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

6.2%66pctl

1.5744pctl

0.1042pctl

Def Suppression?

0.3743pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

7.773pctl

4.554pctl

0.3463pctl

2.1866pctl

1:0641pctl

0:0551pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 48 GP tracked · 10h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

45.1%17pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

52.0%61pctl

O-zone deployment?

41%20pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

16.7 min9pctl

Support received?

17.3 min50pctl

D-zone deployment?

59%80pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.1175pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.8652pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.4169pctl

0.93×17pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.18/gm69pctl

Pressure escape rate?

8.5%65pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 895 EV min

General Offense

7.6482

9.3973

Shot Setups/60?

1.0155

Chance Setups/60?

0.7450

Primary Contributions/60?

8.6580

Rebounds Created/60?

0.6774

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0760

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.4739

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.4773

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0037

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.1356

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.0127

Rush Offense/60?

9.4573

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.6748

0.8758

0.1346

Deflections/60?

0.8021

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.2068

Entries Finished/60?

0.6039

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.3435

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.7481

0.5480

1.2174

Retrieval Success %?

31%65

Exit Involvements/60?

0.1382

Exit Success %?

8%74

Forechecking

1.8129

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0042

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$1.82M

cap hit

$3.17M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

B

Good value (+$1.3M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Nicholas Robertson	65	Depth Forward	32 P · 78 GP	$1.82M	$3.17M	B+$1.3M	this player
Nick Paul	61	Depth Forward	15 P · 51 GP	$3.15M	$2.24M	D−$0.9M	88%
Zachary Bolduc	64	Depth Forward	30 P · 78 GP	$0.86M	$2.92M	A+$2.1M	87%
Danila Yurov	61	Depth Forward	27 P · 73 GP	$0.95M	$2.24M	B+$1.3M	86%
Zachary L'Heureux	63	Depth Forward	5 P · 25 GP	$0.86M	$2.68M	B+$1.8M	86%

Chemistry

Top connection: Nicolas Roy · 6 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Nicholas’s goals

Creates for

goals Nicholas assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

3 pts · 3 G · 0 A · 17 shots in last 10Steady(-0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs NYR

1P

1G 0A

vs NYR 03-25

1G 0A · 3 shots · 14:00 TOI

@ STL

0P

0G 0A

@ STL 03-28

0G 0A · 0 shots · 17:43 TOI

@ ANA

0P

0G 0A

@ ANA 03-30

0G 0A · 1 shots · 14:14 TOI

@ SJS

0P

0G 0A

@ SJS 04-02

0G 0A · 2 shots · 11:43 TOI

@ LAK

1P

1G 0A

@ LAK 04-04

1G 0A · 2 shots · 10:14 TOI

vs WSH

0P

0G 0A

vs WSH 04-08

0G 0A · 1 shots · 14:16 TOI

@ NYI

0P

0G 0A

@ NYI 04-09

0G 0A · 0 shots · 11:19 TOI

vs FLA

0P

0G 0A

vs FLA 04-11

0G 0A · 2 shots · 14:38 TOI

vs DAL

1P

1G 0A

vs DAL 04-13

1G 0A · 6 shots · 14:32 TOI

@ OTT

0P

0G 0A

@ OTT 04-15

0G 0A · 0 shots · 13:03 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)228 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 7 of 16 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 20 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 41 blocks · 10 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2020-21	Toronto Maple Leafs	6	0	1	1	1
2021-22	Toronto Maple Leafs	10	1	0	1	-4
2022-23	Toronto Maple Leafs	15	2	3	5	2
2023-24	Toronto Maple Leafs	56	14	13	27	4
2024-25	Toronto Maple Leafs	69	15	7	22	-1
2025-26	Toronto Maple Leafs	78	16	16	32	-13
Career	1 team	234	48	40	88	-11