Regular season

Matias Maccelli

New York Islanders · LW · #63

Middle-six playerDepth Forward?39 points in 71 games in a supporting role

HT: 5'11"
WT: 187 lb
Age: 25
Shoots: L
From: Turku, FIN
Draft: 2019 ARI · R4 #98

67Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

4747pctl

5353pctl

3737pctl

1414pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.5565pctl

0.2054pctl

0.3570pctl

1.338pctl

-234pctl

866pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

5.5%60pctl

1.3836pctl

0.1042pctl

Def Suppression?

-0.055pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

5.220pctl

1.413pctl

0.2225pctl

0.989pctl

1:4457pctl

0:004pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 41 GP tracked · 10h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

45.1%17pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

44.4%27pctl

O-zone deployment?

57%82pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.5 min59pctl

Support received?

18.3 min21pctl

D-zone deployment?

43%18pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.1071pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.7546pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.3252pctl

1.00×58pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.20/gm57pctl

Pressure escape rate?

8.1%57pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 911 EV min

General Offense

4.6126

6.1322

Shot Setups/60?

0.8643

Chance Setups/60?

0.5329

Primary Contributions/60?

5.4727

Rebounds Created/60?

0.2625

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0759

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.5953

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.2641

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0037

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0019

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

0.9224

Rush Offense/60?

6.4630

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.7963

0.7950

0.1345

Deflections/60?

1.1235

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0736

Entries Finished/60?

0.5330

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.2626

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.5274

0.2648

1.2577

Retrieval Success %?

17%29

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0770

Exit Success %?

4%59

Forechecking

1.3222

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0042

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$3.42M

cap hit

$3.68M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal (+$0.3M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Matias Maccelli	67	Depth Forward	39 P · 71 GP	$3.42M	$3.68M	C+$0.3M	this player
Dalibor Dvorsky	61	Depth Forward	21 P · 71 GP	$0.89M	$2.24M	B+$1.4M	87%
Nino Niederreiter	61	Depth Forward	19 P · 61 GP	$4.00M	$2.24M	D−$1.8M	87%
Easton Cowan	65	Depth Forward	29 P · 66 GP	$0.87M	$3.17M	A+$2.3M	87%
Matthew Wood	66	Depth Forward	30 P · 71 GP	$0.95M	$3.42M	A+$2.5M	83%

Chemistry

Top connection: William Nylander · 12 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Matias’s goals

Creates for

goals Matias assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

4 pts · 0 G · 4 A · 7 shots in last 10Cooling off(-0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs NYR

2P

0G 2A

vs NYR 03-25

0G 2A · 1 shots · 14:28 TOI

@ STL

0P

0G 0A

@ STL 03-28

0G 0A · 1 shots · 14:09 TOI

@ ANA

0P

0G 0A

@ ANA 03-30

0G 0A · 0 shots · 12:48 TOI

@ SJS

0P

0G 0A

@ SJS 04-02

0G 0A · 0 shots · 13:52 TOI

@ LAK

1P

0G 1A

@ LAK 04-04

0G 1A · 1 shots · 11:44 TOI

vs WSH

0P

0G 0A

vs WSH 04-08

0G 0A · 2 shots · 15:47 TOI

@ NYI

1P

0G 1A

@ NYI 04-09

0G 1A · 0 shots · 11:17 TOI

vs FLA

0P

0G 0A

vs FLA 04-11

0G 0A · 0 shots · 16:56 TOI

vs DAL

0P

0G 0A

vs DAL 04-13

0G 0A · 0 shots · 11:51 TOI

@ OTT

0P

0G 0A

@ OTT 04-15

0G 0A · 2 shots · 14:29 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)177 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 5 of 14 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 17 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 19 blocks · 5 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2021-22	Arizona Coyotes	23	1	5	6	-10
2022-23	Arizona Coyotes	64	11	38	49	0
2023-24	Arizona Coyotes	82	17	40	57	-4
2024-25	Utah Hockey Club	55	8	10	18	-13
2025-26	Toronto Maple Leafs	71	14	25	39	-23
Career	3 teams	295	51	118	169	-50