HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Nicolas Roy

Colorado Avalanche · C · #10
Bottom-six playerDepth Forward?25 points in 74 games in a supporting role
HT
6'4"
WT
200 lb
Age
29
Shoots
R
From
Amos, CAN
Draft
2015 CAR · R4 #96
60Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
3333pctl
Playmaking?
3737pctl
Transition?
3131pctl
Defense?
4646pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.3437pctl
Goals / GP?
0.1126pctl
Assists / GP?
0.2348pctl
Shots / GP?
1.023pctl
Plus/Minus?
058pctl
PP Points?
241pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
4.8%53pctl
ZEIS?
1.2531pctl
PSPL?
0.0624pctl
Def Suppression?
0.3540pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP
Faceoff %?
52.3%69pctl
D-Zone FO %?
53.4%72pctl
Draws / GP
9.763pctl
Take : Give?
0.3450pctl
PP TOI / GP?
0:5147pctl
PK TOI / GP?
1:2967pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 45 GP tracked · 11h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
17.0 min20pctl
Support received?
17.1 min56pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 897 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$3.00M

cap hit

$2.03M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

D

Paying a premium ($1.0M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Nicolas Roy60$3.00MD$1.0Mthis player
Otto Stenberg60$0.92MB+$1.1M90%
Zemgus Girgensons60$0.88MB+$1.2M88%
Gage Goncalves61$1.20MB+$1.0M87%
Marco Kasper60$0.89MB+$1.1M87%

Recent form · last 10 games

3 pts · 1 G · 2 A · 11 shots in last 10Steady(+0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs PIT

0P

0G 0A

vs DAL

0P

0G 0A

@ CHI

0P

0G 0A

@ WSH

1P

1G 0A

@ STL

0P

0G 0A

vs CGY

0P

0G 0A

vs VGK

1P

0G 1A

@ EDM

1P

0G 1A

@ CGY

0P

0G 0A

vs SEA

0P

0G 0A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)395 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 4 of 8 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 13 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 50 blocks · 9 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2017-18Carolina Hurricanes1000-1
2018-19Carolina Hurricanes60000
2019-20Vegas Golden Knights2855103
2020-21Vegas Golden Knights5069159
2021-22Vegas Golden Knights7815243912
2022-23Vegas Golden Knights6514163010
2023-24Vegas Golden Knights701328418
2024-25Vegas Golden Knights71151631-4
2025-26Toronto Maple Leafs59515200
2025-26Colorado Avalanche153250
Career4 teams4437611519137