Regular season

Kirill Kaprizov

Minnesota Wild · LW · #97

EliteDual Threat?45G + 44A - elite at finishing and creating (top ~10% of forwards in both)

HT: 5'10"
WT: 202 lb
Age: 29
Shoots: L
From: Novokuznetsk, RUS
Draft: 2015 MIN · R5 #135

91Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

9292pctl

8888pctl

9090pctl

1616pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

1.1497pctl

0.5899pctl

0.5692pctl

3.498pctl

+1085pctl

3298pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

14.9%99pctl

4.4596pctl

0.3296pctl

Def Suppression?

0.1012pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

9.393pctl

1.820pctl

0.2017pctl

0.936pctl

3:5999pctl

0:0241pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 46 GP tracked · 17h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

55.7%89pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

53.2%67pctl

O-zone deployment?

59%85pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.9 min85pctl

Support received?

19.5 min3pctl

D-zone deployment?

41%15pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.1896pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

2.2897pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.7196pctl

1.04×79pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.14/gm82pctl

Pressure escape rate?

9.4%80pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1414 EV min

General Offense

6.7974

8.9169

Shot Setups/60?

1.2373

Chance Setups/60?

0.9872

Primary Contributions/60?

8.0274

Rebounds Created/60?

0.5159

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0865

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.8176

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.4775

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0035

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.1353

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

2.2988

Rush Offense/60?

8.9170

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.4724

0.8556

0.0422

Deflections/60?

1.4453

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0841

Entries Finished/60?

0.5125

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.2523

Entry → Chance %?

50%23

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.3263

0.2547

1.0669

Retrieval Success %?

19%33

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0876

Exit Success %?

6%72

Forechecking

1.8729

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0041

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$9.00M

cap hit

$12.02M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A

Team-friendly deal (+$3.0M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Kirill Kaprizov	91	Dual Threat	89 P · 78 GP	$9.00M	$12.02M	A+$3.0M	this player
Jason Robertson	92	Dual Threat	96 P · 82 GP	$7.75M	$12.83M	A++$5.1M	92%
David Pastrnak	93	Dual Threat	100 P · 77 GP	$11.25M	$13.65M	A+$2.4M	87%
Kyle Connor	91	Dual Threat	92 P · 82 GP	$7.14M	$12.02M	A++$4.9M	86%
Nikita Kucherov	93	Sniper	130 P · 76 GP	$9.50M	$13.65M	A++$4.1M	85%

Chemistry

Top connection: Matt Boldy · 24 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Kirill’s goals

Creates for

goals Kirill assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

10 pts · 7 G · 3 A · 33 shots in last 10Heating up(+0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ CHI

1P

0G 1A

@ CHI 03-17

0G 1A · 6 shots · 21:54 TOI

@ TBL

0P

0G 0A

@ TBL 03-24

0G 0A · 2 shots · 21:31 TOI

@ FLA

0P

0G 0A

@ FLA 03-26

0G 0A · 1 shots · 18:16 TOI

@ BOS

1P

1G 0A

@ BOS 03-28

1G 0A · 3 shots · 19:58 TOI

vs VAN

2P

1G 1A

vs VAN 04-02

1G 1A · 5 shots · 19:45 TOI

@ OTT

1P

0G 1A

@ OTT 04-04

0G 1A · 2 shots · 17:56 TOI

@ DET

3P

3G 0A

@ DET 04-05

3G 0A · 5 shots · 19:53 TOI

vs SEA

0P

0G 0A

vs SEA 04-07

0G 0A · 5 shots · 20:58 TOI

@ DAL

2P

2G 0A

@ DAL 04-09

2G 0A · 4 shots · 23:00 TOI

@ NSH

0P

0G 0A

@ NSH 04-11

0G 0A · 0 shots · 20:41 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)540 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 12 of 45 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 50 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 39 blocks · 7 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2020-21	Minnesota Wild	55	27	24	51	10
2021-22	Minnesota Wild	81	47	61	108	27
2022-23	Minnesota Wild	67	40	35	75	4
2023-24	Minnesota Wild	75	46	50	96	11
2024-25	Minnesota Wild	41	25	31	56	19
2025-26	Minnesota Wild	78	45	44	89	10
Career	1 team	397	230	245	475	81