HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Kyle Connor

Winnipeg Jets · LW · #81
EliteDual Threat?39G + 53A - elite at finishing and creating (top ~10% of forwards in both)
HT
6'1"
WT
183 lb
Age
29
Shoots
L
From
Shelby Township, USA
Draft
2015 WPG · R1 #17
91Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
8989pctl
Playmaking?
9191pctl
Transition?
8888pctl
Defense?
2424pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
1.1297pctl
Goals / GP?
0.4895pctl
Assists / GP?
0.6595pctl
Shots / GP?
3.397pctl
Plus/Minus?
-250pctl
PP Points?
1985pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
13.8%98pctl
ZEIS?
4.0494pctl
PSPL?
0.3998pctl
Def Suppression?
0.1213pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP
Shots / 60?
9.393pctl
Hits / 60?
1.211pctl
Take : Give?
0.3051pctl
Blocks / 60?
0.641pctl
PP TOI / GP?
3:0686pctl
PK TOI / GP?
1:0378pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 51 GP tracked · 19h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
18.1 min97pctl
Support received?
19.9 min1pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1423 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$7.14M

cap hit

$12.02M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A+

Massive surplus value (+$4.9M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Kyle Connor91$7.14MA++$4.9Mthis player
David Pastrnak93$11.25MA+$2.4M90%
Jason Robertson92$7.75MA++$5.1M88%
Kirill Kaprizov91$9.00MA+$3.0M86%
Clayton Keller88$7.15MA+$3.3M85%

Recent form · last 10 games

10 pts · 7 G · 3 A · 40 shots in last 10Cooling off(-0.8 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ COL

1P

1G 0A

@ CHI

2P

1G 1A

@ DAL

0P

0G 0A

@ CBJ

2P

2G 0A

vs SEA

2P

2G 0A

@ STL

0P

0G 0A

vs PHI

0P

0G 0A

@ VGK

1P

0G 1A

@ UTA

2P

1G 1A

vs SJS

0P

0G 0A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)500 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 11 of 39 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 40 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 22 blocks · 6 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2016-17Winnipeg Jets20235-7
2017-18Winnipeg Jets763126578
2018-19Winnipeg Jets82343266-7
2019-20Winnipeg Jets713835734
2020-21Winnipeg Jets56262450-4
2021-22Winnipeg Jets79474693-3
2022-23Winnipeg Jets82314980-11
2023-24Winnipeg Jets65342761-6
2024-25Winnipeg Jets8241569717
2025-26Winnipeg Jets82395392-2
Career1 team695323351674-11