HockeyAlpha
Regular season

David Pastrnak

Boston Bruins · RW · #88
EliteDual Threat?29G + 71A - elite at finishing and creating (top ~10% of forwards in both)
HT
6'0"
WT
199 lb
Age
30
Shoots
R
From
Havirov, CZE
Draft
2014 BOS · R1 #25
93Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
8585pctl
Playmaking?
9292pctl
Transition?
9292pctl
Defense?
2626pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
1.3099pctl
Goals / GP?
0.3888pctl
Assists / GP?
0.9299pctl
Shots / GP?
3.497pctl
Plus/Minus?
+473pctl
PP Points?
3398pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
12.9%96pctl
ZEIS?
6.10100pctl
PSPL?
0.4199pctl
Def Suppression?
0.2324pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP
Shots / 60?
9.896pctl
Hits / 60?
3.241pctl
Take : Give?
0.2429pctl
Blocks / 60?
1.2019pctl
PP TOI / GP?
3:3997pctl
PK TOI / GP?
0:0244pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 45 GP tracked · 16h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
18.0 min92pctl
Support received?
18.2 min25pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1307 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$11.25M

cap hit

$13.65M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A

Team-friendly deal (+$2.4M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
David Pastrnak93$11.25MA+$2.4Mthis player
Jason Robertson92$7.75MA++$5.1M92%
Kyle Connor91$7.14MA++$4.9M90%
Kirill Kaprizov91$9.00MA+$3.0M87%
Brad Marchand87$5.25MA++$4.8M85%

Recent form · last 10 games

10 pts · 0 G · 10 A · 29 shots in last 10Cooling off(-0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs MIN

2P

0G 2A

@ CBJ

0P

0G 0A

vs DAL

3P

0G 3A

@ FLA

1P

0G 1A

@ TBL

0P

0G 0A

@ PHI

1P

0G 1A

@ CAR

2P

0G 2A

vs TBL

0P

0G 0A

@ CBJ

0P

0G 0A

vs NJD

1P

0G 1A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)565 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 7 of 29 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 44 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 37 blocks · 7 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2014-15Boston Bruins4610172712
2015-16Boston Bruins511511263
2016-17Boston Bruins7534367011
2017-18Boston Bruins8235458010
2018-19Boston Bruins663843816
2019-20Boston Bruins7048479521
2020-21Boston Bruins4820284810
2021-22Boston Bruins7240377713
2022-23Boston Bruins82615211334
2023-24Boston Bruins82476311021
2024-25Boston Bruins8243631060
2025-26Boston Bruins7729711004
Career1 team833420513933145