Regular season

Jason Robertson

Dallas Stars · LW · #21

EliteDual Threat?45G + 51A - elite at finishing and creating (top ~10% of forwards in both)

HT: 6'3"
WT: 204 lb
Age: 27
Shoots: L
From: Arcadia, USA
Draft: 2017 DAL · R2 #39

92Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

9292pctl

9090pctl

9292pctl

2222pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

1.1797pctl

0.5598pctl

0.6294pctl

3.699pctl

+2296pctl

4199pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

14.9%99pctl

4.7598pctl

0.4098pctl

Def Suppression?

0.1819pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

10.698pctl

1.719pctl

0.2225pctl

1.2223pctl

3:5298pctl

0:0239pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 49 GP tracked · 17h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

52.9%76pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

60.0%90pctl

O-zone deployment?

46%33pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.9 min84pctl

Support received?

19.1 min6pctl

D-zone deployment?

54%67pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.2399pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

2.2997pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.8099pctl

1.12×97pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.28/gm28pctl

Pressure escape rate?

8.3%62pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1341 EV min

General Offense

9.0491

12.2192

Shot Setups/60?

1.3482

Chance Setups/60?

1.0779

Primary Contributions/60?

10.3891

Rebounds Created/60?

0.8186

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0446

Center-Lane Setups/60?

1.0788

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.4978

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0036

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.2783

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

2.1585

Rush Offense/60?

11.4188

Shots off HD Setups/60?

1.2588

1.2181

0.3181

Deflections/60?

0.8924

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.1865

Entries Finished/60?

1.3085

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.7281

Entry → Chance %?

55%36

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.7484

0.4070

1.3484

Retrieval Success %?

23%43

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0458

Exit Success %?

3%52

Forechecking

1.3921

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0987

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$7.75M

cap hit

$12.83M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A+

Massive surplus value (+$5.1M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Jason Robertson	92	Dual Threat	96 P · 82 GP	$7.75M	$12.83M	A++$5.1M	this player
David Pastrnak	93	Dual Threat	100 P · 77 GP	$11.25M	$13.65M	A+$2.4M	92%
Kirill Kaprizov	91	Dual Threat	89 P · 78 GP	$9.00M	$12.02M	A+$3.0M	92%
Kyle Connor	91	Dual Threat	92 P · 82 GP	$7.14M	$12.02M	A++$4.9M	88%
Brad Marchand	87	Dual Threat	54 P · 52 GP	$5.25M	$10.09M	A++$4.8M	86%

Chemistry

Top connection: Wyatt Johnston · 25 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Jason’s goals

Creates for

goals Jason assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

11 pts · 6 G · 5 A · 36 shots in last 10Heating up(+0.6 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ PIT

2P

1G 1A

@ PIT 03-28

1G 1A · 5 shots · 21:03 TOI

@ PHI

0P

0G 0A

@ PHI 03-29

0G 0A · 5 shots · 20:55 TOI

@ BOS

2P

0G 2A

@ BOS 03-31

0G 2A · 2 shots · 21:26 TOI

vs WPG

0P

0G 0A

vs WPG 04-02

0G 0A · 4 shots · 22:51 TOI

vs COL

0P

0G 0A

vs COL 04-04

0G 0A · 4 shots · 24:52 TOI

vs CGY

2P

1G 1A

vs CGY 04-07

1G 1A · 6 shots · 24:14 TOI

vs MIN

1P

1G 0A

vs MIN 04-09

1G 0A · 2 shots · 16:14 TOI

vs NYR

2P

2G 0A

vs NYR 04-11

2G 0A · 2 shots · 20:58 TOI

@ TOR

2P

1G 1A

@ TOR 04-13

1G 1A · 5 shots · 19:26 TOI

@ BUF

0P

0G 0A

@ BUF 04-15

0G 0A · 1 shots · 17:26 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)553 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 13 of 45 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 48 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 47 blocks · 10 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2019-20	Dallas Stars	3	0	1	1	0
2020-21	Dallas Stars	51	17	28	45	13
2021-22	Dallas Stars	74	41	38	79	16
2022-23	Dallas Stars	82	46	63	109	37
2023-24	Dallas Stars	82	29	51	80	19
2024-25	Dallas Stars	82	35	45	80	10
2025-26	Dallas Stars	82	45	51	96	22
Career	1 team	456	213	277	490	117