HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Nikita Kucherov

Tampa Bay Lightning · RW · #86
EliteSniper?44 goals on 32.6 expected - finishes above his chances
HT
6'0"
WT
173 lb
Age
33
Shoots
L
From
Maykop, RUS
Draft
2011 TBL · R2 #58
93Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
9191pctl
Playmaking?
7373pctl
Transition?
9191pctl
Defense?
1414pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
1.71100pctl
Goals / GP?
0.5899pctl
Assists / GP?
1.13100pctl
Shots / GP?
3.095pctl
Plus/Minus?
+4399pctl
PP Points?
3799pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
12.6%96pctl
ZEIS?
5.4599pctl
PSPL?
0.1459pctl
Def Suppression?
0.069pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP
Shots / 60?
9.089pctl
Hits / 60?
1.413pctl
Take : Give?
0.1712pctl
Blocks / 60?
1.1216pctl
PP TOI / GP?
4:1599pctl
PK TOI / GP?
0:0135pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 48 GP tracked · 16h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
17.9 min90pctl
Support received?
18.8 min10pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1221 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$9.50M

cap hit

$13.65M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A+

Massive surplus value (+$4.1M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Nikita Kucherov93$9.50MA++$4.1Mthis player
Kirill Kaprizov91$9.00MA+$3.0M85%
Jason Robertson92$7.75MA++$5.1M84%
Artemi Panarin86$11.64MD$1.9M83%
Dylan Guenther85$7.14MA+$2.2M82%

Recent form · last 10 games

10 pts · 4 G · 6 A · 27 shots in last 10Cooling off(-0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs SEA

1P

0G 1A

vs MTL

0P

0G 0A

vs PIT

3P

1G 2A

vs BOS

1P

1G 0A

@ BUF

1P

1G 0A

@ OTT

1P

0G 1A

@ MTL

1P

0G 1A

@ BOS

0P

0G 0A

vs DET

2P

1G 1A

vs NYR

0P

0G 0A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)533 events shown

The office: the left circle - 17 of 44 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 34 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 29 blocks · 5 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2013-14Tampa Bay Lightning5299183
2014-15Tampa Bay Lightning8229366538
2015-16Tampa Bay Lightning773036669
2016-17Tampa Bay Lightning7440458513
2017-18Tampa Bay Lightning80396110015
2018-19Tampa Bay Lightning82418712824
2019-20Tampa Bay Lightning6833528526
2021-22Tampa Bay Lightning472544691
2022-23Tampa Bay Lightning823083113-2
2023-24Tampa Bay Lightning81441001448
2024-25Tampa Bay Lightning78378412122
2025-26Tampa Bay Lightning76448613043
Career1 team8794017231124200