Regular season

Matt Boldy

Minnesota Wild · LW · #12

EliteDual Threat?42G + 43A - elite at finishing and creating (top ~10% of forwards in both)

HT: 6'2"
WT: 201 lb
Age: 25
Shoots: L
From: Milford, USA
Draft: 2019 MIN · R1 #12

92Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

9090pctl

8888pctl

9090pctl

6666pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

1.1296pctl

0.5599pctl

0.5793pctl

3.397pctl

+1894pctl

3097pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

13%97pctl

4.7998pctl

0.3296pctl

Def Suppression?

0.5362pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

9.795pctl

2.327pctl

0.4075pctl

2.2267pctl

3:5198pctl

1:4390pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 46 GP tracked · 16h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

51.7%66pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

58.3%85pctl

O-zone deployment?

53%64pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

18.2 min98pctl

Support received?

19.7 min1pctl

D-zone deployment?

47%36pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.1384pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.9893pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.4677pctl

1.05×85pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.34/gm13pctl

Pressure escape rate?

9.1%77pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1140 EV min

General Offense

8.4788

11.4288

Shot Setups/60?

1.3280

Chance Setups/60?

1.1683

Primary Contributions/60?

9.7988

Rebounds Created/60?

0.6371

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0550

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.6863

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.3251

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0036

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.1662

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.8975

Rush Offense/60?

12.3790

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.8971

0.7443

0.1137

Deflections/60?

1.5359

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0529

Entries Finished/60?

1.0074

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.6877

Entry → Chance %?

68%62

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.0543

0.1631

0.8954

Retrieval Success %?

15%24

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0033

Exit Success %?

0%30

Forechecking

2.6842

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0042

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$7.00M

cap hit

$12.83M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A+

Massive surplus value (+$5.8M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Matt Boldy	92	Dual Threat	85 P · 76 GP	$7.00M	$12.83M	A++$5.8M	this player
Alex DeBrincat	91	Dual Threat	85 P · 82 GP	$7.88M	$12.02M	A++$4.1M	89%
Mikko Rantanen	90	Top-Six Threat	77 P · 64 GP	$12.00M	$11.21M	D−$0.8M	85%
Bryan Rust	86	Dual Threat	65 P · 72 GP	$5.13M	$9.72M	A++$4.6M	83%
William Nylander	91	Top-Six Threat	79 P · 65 GP	$11.50M	$12.02M	C+$0.5M	81%

Chemistry

Top connection: Kirill Kaprizov · 24 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Matt’s goals

Creates for

goals Matt assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

10 pts · 4 G · 6 A · 33 shots in last 10Heating up(+0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs DAL

0P

0G 0A

vs DAL 03-21

0G 0A · 4 shots · 24:22 TOI

@ TBL

1P

0G 1A

@ TBL 03-24

0G 1A · 2 shots · 21:15 TOI

@ FLA

0P

0G 0A

@ FLA 03-26

0G 0A · 1 shots · 15:15 TOI

@ BOS

0P

0G 0A

@ BOS 03-28

0G 0A · 5 shots · 20:28 TOI

vs VAN

3P

2G 1A

vs VAN 04-02

2G 1A · 6 shots · 15:45 TOI

@ OTT

0P

0G 0A

@ OTT 04-04

0G 0A · 2 shots · 17:16 TOI

@ DET

2P

1G 1A

@ DET 04-05

1G 1A · 3 shots · 19:03 TOI

vs SEA

2P

1G 1A

vs SEA 04-07

1G 1A · 1 shots · 14:29 TOI

@ DAL

2P

0G 2A

@ DAL 04-09

0G 2A · 4 shots · 20:47 TOI

@ NSH

0P

0G 0A

@ NSH 04-11

0G 0A · 5 shots · 19:35 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)507 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 13 of 42 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 33 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 61 blocks · 9 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2021-22	Minnesota Wild	47	15	24	39	17
2022-23	Minnesota Wild	81	31	32	63	1
2023-24	Minnesota Wild	75	29	40	69	5
2024-25	Minnesota Wild	82	27	46	73	1
2025-26	Minnesota Wild	76	42	43	85	18
Career	1 team	361	144	185	329	42