Regular season

Matt Roy

Washington Capitals · D · #3

Third-pair DSteady Blueliner?146 blocks across 79 games of regular duty

HT: 6'2"
WT: 220 lb
Age: 31
Shoots: R
From: Detroit, USA
Draft: 2015 LAK · R7 #194

69Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

4242pctl

6464pctl

4040pctl

6161pctl

League profile

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

0.2445pctl

0.0322pctl

0.2252pctl

1.255pctl

+1890pctl

027pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

2.2%21pctl

0.8716pctl

0.1873pctl

Def Suppression?

1.0193pctl

Defenseman toolkit

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

1.8587pctl

5.3880pctl

Blocks / 100 shifts?

8.393pctl

4.372pctl

0.1715pctl

0:0748pctl

2:3484pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 50 GP tracked · 17h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

46.2%23pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

50.0%52pctl

O-zone deployment?

45%32pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.6 min64pctl

Support received?

16.8 min65pctl

D-zone deployment?

55%68pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0536pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.3123pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.1720pctl

1.08×92pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.34/gm14pctl

Pressure escape rate?

9.1%77pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs defensemen · center = median · 1416 EV min

General Offense

3.6454

2.4624

Shot Setups/60?

1.1078

Chance Setups/60?

0.9779

Primary Contributions/60?

4.7563

Rebounds Created/60?

0.6488

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0463

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.4768

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.2165

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0882

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.1362

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.4034

Rush Offense/60?

5.5148

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.3053

0.1324

0.0867

Deflections/60?

0.1371

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0030

Entries Finished/60?

0.2134

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.0429

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

2.1225

0.2118

1.9135

Retrieval Success %?

10%21

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0473

Exit Success %?

2%77

Forechecking

0.9788

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0048

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$5.75M

cap hit

$4.49M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

D

Paying a premium (−$1.3M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Matt Roy	69	Steady Blueliner	19 P · 79 GP	$5.75M	$4.49M	D−$1.3M	this player
Timothy Liljegren	69	Steady Blueliner	11 P · 47 GP	$3.00M	$4.49M	B+$1.5M	89%
Ryan Shea	71	Steady Blueliner	35 P · 80 GP	$0.90M	$5.10M	A++$4.2M	88%
Artem Zub	73	Steady Blueliner	30 P · 81 GP	$4.60M	$5.74M	B+$1.1M	87%
Alex Vlasic	67	Depth Defenseman	21 P · 81 GP	$4.60M	$3.91M	C−$0.7M	85%

Chemistry

Top connection: Alex Ovechkin · 4 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Matt’s goals

Creates for

goals Matt assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

2 pts · 0 G · 2 A · 7 shots in last 10Cooling off(-0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ UTA

0P

0G 0A

@ UTA 03-26

0G 0A · 1 shots · 19:37 TOI

@ VGK

0P

0G 0A

@ VGK 03-28

0G 0A · 0 shots · 19:26 TOI

vs PHI

2P

0G 2A

vs PHI 03-31

0G 2A · 2 shots · 19:33 TOI

@ NJD

0P

0G 0A

@ NJD 04-02

0G 0A · 1 shots · 17:45 TOI

vs BUF

0P

0G 0A

vs BUF 04-04

0G 0A · 1 shots · 20:56 TOI

@ NYR

0P

0G 0A

@ NYR 04-05

0G 0A · 0 shots · 18:00 TOI

@ TOR

0P

0G 0A

@ TOR 04-08

0G 0A · 0 shots · 19:13 TOI

@ PIT

0P

0G 0A

@ PIT 04-11

0G 0A · 2 shots · 19:53 TOI

vs PIT

0P

0G 0A

vs PIT 04-12

0G 0A · 0 shots · 19:41 TOI

@ CBJ

0P

0G 0A

@ CBJ 04-14

0G 0A · 0 shots · 19:58 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)372 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 1 of 2 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 24 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 147 blocks · 8 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2018-19	Los Angeles Kings	25	2	4	6	-1
2019-20	Los Angeles Kings	70	4	14	18	16
2020-21	Los Angeles Kings	44	2	8	10	0
2021-22	Los Angeles Kings	67	2	19	21	23
2022-23	Los Angeles Kings	82	9	17	26	8
2023-24	Los Angeles Kings	81	5	20	25	21
2024-25	Washington Capitals	69	3	21	24	18
2025-26	Washington Capitals	79	2	17	19	18
Career	2 teams	517	29	120	149	103