HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Alex Ovechkin

Washington Capitals · LW · #8
Top-six playerSniper?32 goals on 31.8 expected - a volume shooter
HT
6'3"
WT
238 lb
Age
40
Shoots
R
From
Moscow, RUS
Draft
2004 WSH · R1 #1
82Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
8686pctl
Playmaking?
7575pctl
Transition?
9191pctl
Defense?
1010pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.7882pctl
Goals / GP?
0.3989pctl
Assists / GP?
0.3976pctl
Shots / GP?
3.095pctl
Plus/Minus?
-539pctl
PP Points?
1985pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
11.9%95pctl
ZEIS?
5.1098pctl
PSPL?
0.2284pctl
Def Suppression?
0.006pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP
Shots / 60?
10.296pctl
Hits / 60?
5.663pctl
Take : Give?
0.155pctl
Blocks / 60?
0.672pctl
PP TOI / GP?
4:29100pctl
PK TOI / GP?
0:0138pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 51 GP tracked · 15h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
17.4 min52pctl
Support received?
18.2 min23pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1061 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$9.50M

cap hit

$8.30M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

D

Paying a premium ($1.2M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Alex Ovechkin82$9.50MD$1.2Mthis player
Dylan Guenther85$7.14MA+$2.2M88%
Matthew Tkachuk87$9.50MC+$0.6M84%
Andrei Svechnikov83$7.75MB+$0.9M83%
Kevin Fiala80$7.88MC$0.3M82%

Recent form · last 10 games

11 pts · 6 G · 5 A · 38 shots in last 10Cooling off(-1.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ UTA

3P

3G 0A

@ VGK

1P

0G 1A

vs PHI

2P

2G 0A

@ NJD

0P

0G 0A

vs BUF

2P

0G 2A

@ NYR

0P

0G 0A

@ TOR

0P

0G 0A

@ PIT

1P

1G 0A

vs PIT

1P

0G 1A

@ CBJ

1P

0G 1A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)542 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 7 of 32 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 37 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 20 blocks · 0 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2005-06Washington Capitals8152541062
2006-07Washington Capitals82464692-19
2007-08Washington Capitals82654711228
2008-09Washington Capitals7956541108
2009-10Washington Capitals72505910945
2010-11Washington Capitals7932538524
2011-12Washington Capitals78382765-8
2012-13Washington Capitals483224562
2013-14Washington Capitals78512879-35
2014-15Washington Capitals8153288110
2015-16Washington Capitals7950217121
2016-17Washington Capitals823336696
2017-18Washington Capitals824938873
2018-19Washington Capitals815138897
2019-20Washington Capitals68481967-12
2020-21Washington Capitals45241842-7
2021-22Washington Capitals775040908
2022-23Washington Capitals73423375-16
2023-24Washington Capitals79313465-22
2024-25Washington Capitals6544297315
2025-26Washington Capitals82323264-5
Career1 team1573929758168755