HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Morgan Frost

Calgary Flames · C · #16
Middle-six playerMiddle-Six Engine?Reliable minutes: 43 points and honest two-way play
HT
6'0"
WT
193 lb
Age
27
Shoots
L
From
Aurora, CAN
Draft
2017 PHI · R1 #27
71Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
6464pctl
Playmaking?
5252pctl
Transition?
5858pctl
Defense?
7171pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.5263pctl
Goals / GP?
0.2773pctl
Assists / GP?
0.2654pctl
Shots / GP?
1.763pctl
Plus/Minus?
-1610pctl
PP Points?
1682pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
7.8%78pctl
ZEIS?
2.1566pctl
PSPL?
0.1355pctl
Def Suppression?
0.5767pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP
Faceoff %?
56.8%89pctl
D-Zone FO %?
58.8%94pctl
Draws / GP
12.978pctl
Take : Give?
0.4272pctl
PP TOI / GP?
2:4175pctl
PK TOI / GP?
0:0114pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 52 GP tracked · 14h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
17.3 min41pctl
Support received?
17.6 min40pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1050 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$4.38M

cap hit

$4.78M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal (+$0.4M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Morgan Frost71$4.38MC+$0.4Mthis player
Brayden Schenn70$6.50MD$2.0M89%
Josh Norris77$7.95MD$1.3M87%
Ben Kindel71$0.97MA+$3.8M86%
Frank Nazar75$0.95MA++$5.0M83%

Recent form · last 10 games

8 pts · 5 G · 3 A · 20 shots in last 10Cooling off(-0.8 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs VAN

3P

1G 2A

@ COL

0P

0G 0A

@ VGK

1P

1G 0A

@ ANA

2P

2G 0A

@ DAL

0P

0G 0A

@ COL

0P

0G 0A

@ SEA

0P

0G 0A

vs UTA

1P

0G 1A

vs COL

0P

0G 0A

vs LAK

1P

1G 0A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)568 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 11 of 22 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 19 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 47 blocks · 10 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2019-20Philadelphia Flyers20257-3
2020-21Philadelphia Flyers20000
2021-22Philadelphia Flyers5551116-11
2022-23Philadelphia Flyers81192746-12
2023-24Philadelphia Flyers711328414
2024-25Philadelphia Flyers49111425-11
2024-25Calgary Flames323912-6
2025-26Calgary Flames82222143-16
Career2 teams39275115190-55