Regular season

Mikko Rantanen

Dallas Stars · RW · #96

EliteTop-Six Threat?77 points in 64 games with strong all-around impact

HT: 6'4"
WT: 228 lb
Age: 29
Shoots: L
From: Nousiainen, FIN
Draft: 2015 COL · R1 #10

90Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

7979pctl

8282pctl

7878pctl

6060pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

1.2097pctl

0.3485pctl

0.8699pctl

2.278pctl

058pctl

3498pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

10.4%90pctl

3.1886pctl

0.2080pctl

Def Suppression?

0.5261pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

6.544pctl

2.225pctl

0.3256pctl

1.3930pctl

3:5599pctl

0:0132pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 37 GP tracked · 12h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

49.0%44pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

66.0%97pctl

O-zone deployment?

60%87pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.9 min89pctl

Support received?

19.4 min3pctl

D-zone deployment?

40%13pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.1175pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.1769pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.4779pctl

1.20×100pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.25/gm37pctl

Pressure escape rate?

8.7%69pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1039 EV min

General Offense

4.9634

7.5647

Shot Setups/60?

0.6931

Chance Setups/60?

0.6944

Primary Contributions/60?

5.6631

Rebounds Created/60?

0.2321

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0027

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.5244

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.1724

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0036

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.2376

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.2743

Rush Offense/60?

7.2742

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.4625

0.4016

0.1240

Deflections/60?

1.3349

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0018

Entries Finished/60?

0.4623

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.2928

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.6780

0.6987

0.9862

Retrieval Success %?

41%80

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0034

Exit Success %?

0%31

Forechecking

1.9031

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0680

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$12.00M

cap hit

$11.21M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

D

Paying a premium (−$0.8M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Mikko Rantanen	90	Top-Six Threat	77 P · 64 GP	$12.00M	$11.21M	D−$0.8M	this player
Bryan Rust	86	Dual Threat	65 P · 72 GP	$5.13M	$9.72M	A++$4.6M	86%
Matt Boldy	92	Dual Threat	85 P · 76 GP	$7.00M	$12.83M	A++$5.8M	85%
Zach Hyman	85	Sniper	52 P · 58 GP	$5.50M	$9.36M	A+$3.9M	84%
Mitch Marner	84	Playmaker	80 P · 81 GP	$12.00M	$9.00M	F−$3.0M	84%

Chemistry

Top connection: Wyatt Johnston · 26 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Mikko’s goals

Creates for

goals Mikko assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

8 pts · 2 G · 6 A · 13 shots in last 10Steady(+0.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ PIT

2P

1G 1A

@ PIT 03-28

1G 1A · 3 shots · 18:57 TOI

@ PHI

0P

0G 0A

@ PHI 03-29

0G 0A · 2 shots · 21:24 TOI

@ BOS

1P

0G 1A

@ BOS 03-31

0G 1A · 0 shots · 22:25 TOI

vs WPG

1P

0G 1A

vs WPG 04-02

0G 1A · 0 shots · 20:31 TOI

vs COL

0P

0G 0A

vs COL 04-04

0G 0A · 0 shots · 21:45 TOI

vs CGY

1P

0G 1A

vs CGY 04-07

0G 1A · 3 shots · 21:08 TOI

vs MIN

2P

1G 1A

vs MIN 04-09

1G 1A · 1 shots · 17:42 TOI

vs NYR

0P

0G 0A

vs NYR 04-11

0G 0A · 1 shots · 18:25 TOI

@ TOR

1P

0G 1A

@ TOR 04-13

0G 1A · 2 shots · 19:23 TOI

@ BUF

0P

0G 0A

@ BUF 04-15

0G 0A · 1 shots · 18:33 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)288 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 12 of 22 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 20 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 42 blocks · 12 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2015-16	Colorado Avalanche	9	0	0	0	-7
2016-17	Colorado Avalanche	75	20	18	38	-25
2017-18	Colorado Avalanche	81	29	55	84	0
2018-19	Colorado Avalanche	74	31	56	87	13
2019-20	Colorado Avalanche	42	19	22	41	-2
2020-21	Colorado Avalanche	52	30	36	66	30
2021-22	Colorado Avalanche	75	36	56	92	35
2022-23	Colorado Avalanche	82	55	50	105	15
2023-24	Colorado Avalanche	80	42	62	104	19
2024-25	Colorado Avalanche	49	25	39	64	12
2024-25	Carolina Hurricanes	13	2	4	6	-3
2024-25	Dallas Stars	20	5	13	18	4
2025-26	Dallas Stars	64	22	55	77	0
Career	3 teams	716	316	466	782	91