Regular season

Pavel Dorofeyev

New York Rangers · RW · #16

Top-six playerSniper?37 goals on 28.9 expected - finishes above his chances

HT: 6'1"
WT: 194 lb
Age: 25
Shoots: L
From: Nizhny Tagil, RUS
Draft: 2019 VGK · R3 #79

83Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

8787pctl

7878pctl

8989pctl

3232pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.7882pctl

0.4594pctl

0.3367pctl

2.893pctl

-346pctl

3097pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

11%92pctl

4.6597pctl

0.3697pctl

Def Suppression?

0.2728pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

9.694pctl

1.19pctl

0.2739pctl

1.1618pctl

3:2794pctl

0:0018pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 51 GP tracked · 15h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

57.3%94pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

53.7%69pctl

O-zone deployment?

64%93pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.4 min50pctl

Support received?

18.5 min16pctl

D-zone deployment?

36%7pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.1281pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.9593pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.7597pctl

1.02×70pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.22/gm51pctl

Pressure escape rate?

9.3%79pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1161 EV min

General Offense

7.2478

10.3984

Shot Setups/60?

1.0358

Chance Setups/60?

0.9872

Primary Contributions/60?

8.2777

Rebounds Created/60?

0.6775

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0027

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.6257

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.4773

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0036

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.2172

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.4050

Rush Offense/60?

11.1186

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.5735

0.9867

0.1036

Deflections/60?

1.2945

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0528

Entries Finished/60?

0.9368

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.4143

Entry → Chance %?

44%17

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

0.9838

0.3156

0.6734

Retrieval Success %?

32%67

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0562

Exit Success %?

5%67

Forechecking

1.3421

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0042

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$1.83M

cap hit

$8.65M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A+

Massive surplus value (+$6.8M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Pavel Dorofeyev	83	Sniper	64 P · 82 GP	$1.83M	$8.65M	A++$6.8M	this player
Filip Forsberg	85	Transition Engine	75 P · 82 GP	$8.50M	$9.36M	B+$0.9M	89%
Troy Terry	85	Top-Six Threat	57 P · 61 GP	$7.00M	$9.36M	A+$2.4M	88%
Brad Marchand	87	Dual Threat	54 P · 52 GP	$5.25M	$10.09M	A++$4.8M	88%
Cole Caufield	89	Sniper	88 P · 81 GP	$7.85M	$10.83M	A+$3.0M	86%

Chemistry

Top connection: Mitch Marner · 21 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Pavel’s goals

Creates for

goals Pavel assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

6 pts · 3 G · 3 A · 27 shots in last 10Steady(+0.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs EDM

1P

0G 1A

vs EDM 03-26

0G 1A · 1 shots · 19:10 TOI

vs WSH

1P

0G 1A

vs WSH 03-28

0G 1A · 2 shots · 19:13 TOI

vs VAN

0P

0G 0A

vs VAN 03-30

0G 0A · 3 shots · 19:45 TOI

vs CGY

1P

1G 0A

vs CGY 04-02

1G 0A · 5 shots · 19:45 TOI

@ EDM

0P

0G 0A

@ EDM 04-04

0G 0A · 3 shots · 15:46 TOI

@ VAN

0P

0G 0A

@ VAN 04-07

0G 0A · 2 shots · 17:05 TOI

@ SEA

1P

0G 1A

@ SEA 04-09

0G 1A · 2 shots · 15:30 TOI

@ COL

1P

1G 0A

@ COL 04-11

1G 0A · 4 shots · 17:11 TOI

vs WPG

1P

1G 0A

vs WPG 04-13

1G 0A · 2 shots · 16:42 TOI

vs SEA

0P

0G 0A

vs SEA 04-15

0G 0A · 3 shots · 20:07 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)458 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 9 of 37 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 34 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 33 blocks · 6 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2021-22	Vegas Golden Knights	2	0	0	0	-1
2022-23	Vegas Golden Knights	18	7	2	9	5
2023-24	Vegas Golden Knights	47	13	11	24	8
2024-25	Vegas Golden Knights	82	35	17	52	2
2025-26	Vegas Golden Knights	82	37	27	64	-3
Career	1 team	231	92	57	149	11