HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Tomas Hertl

Vegas Golden Knights · C · #48
Top-six playerFaceoff General?57.8% on 1,245 draws - possession starts with him
HT
6'3"
WT
220 lb
Age
32
Shoots
L
From
Praha, CZE
Draft
2012 SJS · R1 #17
82Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
8282pctl
Playmaking?
8383pctl
Transition?
7979pctl
Defense?
7575pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.7178pctl
Goals / GP?
0.2977pctl
Assists / GP?
0.4178pctl
Shots / GP?
2.586pctl
Plus/Minus?
-179pctl
PP Points?
2593pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
13.4%97pctl
ZEIS?
3.1385pctl
PSPL?
0.3998pctl
Def Suppression?
0.8084pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP
Faceoff %?
57.8%94pctl
D-Zone FO %?
56.7%88pctl
Draws / GP
15.288pctl
Take : Give?
0.3345pctl
PP TOI / GP?
3:2892pctl
PK TOI / GP?
0:0831pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 51 GP tracked · 14h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
17.3 min41pctl
Support received?
17.9 min32pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1101 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$8.14M

cap hit

$8.30M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal (+$0.2M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Tomas Hertl82$8.14MC+$0.2Mthis player
Brock Nelson84$7.50MB+$1.5M88%
Kyle Palmieri80$4.75MA+$2.9M85%
Nick Schmaltz87$5.85MA++$4.2M85%
Nico Hischier85$7.25MA+$2.1M84%

Chemistry

Top connection: Pavel Dorofeyev · 16 goals together

Recent form · last 10 games

4 pts · 0 G · 4 A · 23 shots in last 10Heating up(+0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs EDM

0P

0G 0A

vs WSH

0P

0G 0A

vs VAN

1P

0G 1A

vs CGY

0P

0G 0A

@ EDM

0P

0G 0A

@ VAN

0P

0G 0A

@ SEA

1P

0G 1A

@ COL

1P

0G 1A

vs WPG

0P

0G 0A

vs SEA

1P

0G 1A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)712 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 18 of 24 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 41 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 73 blocks · 5 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2013-14San Jose Sharks3715102511
2014-15San Jose Sharks82131831-5
2015-16San Jose Sharks8121254616
2016-17San Jose Sharks49101222-8
2017-18San Jose Sharks79222446-2
2018-19San Jose Sharks773539745
2019-20San Jose Sharks48162036-18
2020-21San Jose Sharks501924431
2021-22San Jose Sharks82303464-9
2022-23San Jose Sharks79224163-36
2023-24San Jose Sharks48151934-26
2023-24Vegas Golden Knights6224-2
2024-25Vegas Golden Knights73322961-3
2025-26Vegas Golden Knights82243458-17
Career2 teams873276331607-93