HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Mitch Marner

Vegas Golden Knights · RW · #93
First-line playerPlaymaker?56 assists · PSPL 0.24 - creates the danger before the shot
HT
6'0"
WT
180 lb
Age
29
Shoots
R
From
Markham, CAN
Draft
2015 TOR · R1 #4
84Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
6565pctl
Playmaking?
8585pctl
Transition?
7878pctl
Defense?
6060pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.9993pctl
Goals / GP?
0.3078pctl
Assists / GP?
0.6996pctl
Shots / GP?
2.072pctl
Plus/Minus?
+1793pctl
PP Points?
2492pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
6.5%69pctl
ZEIS?
3.7392pctl
PSPL?
0.2487pctl
Def Suppression?
0.4654pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP
Shots / 60?
6.139pctl
Hits / 60?
0.95pctl
Take : Give?
0.3872pctl
Blocks / 60?
1.7047pctl
PP TOI / GP?
3:3696pctl
PK TOI / GP?
1:1582pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 50 GP tracked · 17h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
17.8 min80pctl
Support received?
18.5 min15pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1224 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$12.00M

cap hit

$9.00M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

F

Well above market ($3.0M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Mitch Marner84$12.00MF$3.0Mthis player
Lucas Raymond85$8.07MB+$1.3M87%
William Eklund79$0.86MA++$6.4M86%
Mikko Rantanen90$12.00MD$0.8M84%
Bryan Rust86$5.13MA++$4.6M81%

Recent form · last 10 games

10 pts · 5 G · 5 A · 25 shots in last 10Cooling off(-0.8 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs EDM

0P

0G 0A

vs WSH

1P

1G 0A

vs VAN

0P

0G 0A

vs CGY

5P

3G 2A

@ EDM

1P

0G 1A

@ VAN

0P

0G 0A

@ SEA

1P

0G 1A

@ COL

1P

0G 1A

vs WPG

0P

0G 0A

vs SEA

1P

1G 0A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)372 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 10 of 24 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 37 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 51 blocks · 17 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2016-17Toronto Maple Leafs771942610
2017-18Toronto Maple Leafs82224769-1
2018-19Toronto Maple Leafs8226689422
2019-20Toronto Maple Leafs591651676
2020-21Toronto Maple Leafs5520476721
2021-22Toronto Maple Leafs7235629723
2022-23Toronto Maple Leafs8030699918
2023-24Toronto Maple Leafs6926598521
2024-25Toronto Maple Leafs81277510218
2025-26Vegas Golden Knights8124568017
Career2 teams738245576821145