Regular season

Kaiden Guhle

Montréal Canadiens · D · #21

Third-pair DHeavy Hitter?86 hits (6.8/60) - punishes the forecheck

HT: 6'3"
WT: 202 lb
Age: 24
Shoots: L
From: Edmonton, CAN
Draft: 2020 MTL · R1 #16

72Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

5151pctl

3434pctl

4747pctl

7979pctl

League profile

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

0.2855pctl

0.0549pctl

0.2356pctl

1.045pctl

+566pctl

027pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

1.9%17pctl

1.4540pctl

0.002pctl

Def Suppression?

1.2397pctl

Defenseman toolkit

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

1.6275pctl

4.9771pctl

Blocks / 100 shifts?

7.382pctl

6.893pctl

0.5899pctl

0:0113pctl

1:4259pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 29 GP tracked · 9h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

47.9%34pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

54.1%71pctl

O-zone deployment?

35%9pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.7 min76pctl

Support received?

17.0 min58pctl

D-zone deployment?

65%91pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.004pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.2619pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.000pctl

1.02×68pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.51/gm1pctl

Pressure escape rate?

7.2%34pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs defensemen · center = median · 692 EV min

General Offense

3.4750

2.6935

Shot Setups/60?

0.1714

Chance Setups/60?

0.1715

Primary Contributions/60?

3.6432

Rebounds Created/60?

0.0014

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0033

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.0014

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.0935

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0036

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0022

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.6548

Rush Offense/60?

6.5971

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.0014

0.0017

0.0028

Deflections/60?

0.0957

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0033

Entries Finished/60?

0.0920

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.0021

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

2.6951

0.9586

1.7328

Retrieval Success %?

35%86

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0038

Exit Success %?

0%38

Forechecking

1.1385

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0049

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$5.55M

cap hit

$5.42M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal (−$0.1M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Kaiden Guhle	72	Heavy Hitter	11 P · 39 GP	$5.55M	$5.42M	C−$0.1M	this player
Mario Ferraro	73	Steady Blueliner	23 P · 82 GP	$3.25M	$5.74M	A+$2.5M	85%
Nick Seeler	71	Steady Blueliner	10 P · 80 GP	$2.70M	$5.10M	A+$2.4M	84%
Jonas Brodin	74	Steady Blueliner	18 P · 62 GP	$6.00M	$6.07M	C+$0.1M	84%
Mikey Anderson	67	Depth Defenseman	20 P · 80 GP	$4.13M	$3.91M	C−$0.2M	83%

Chemistry

Finishes from

assisters on Kaiden’s goals

Creates for

goals Kaiden assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

1 pts · 0 G · 1 A · 9 shots in last 10Steady(+0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs CAR

0P

0G 0A

vs CAR 03-24

0G 0A · 0 shots · 20:30 TOI

vs CBJ

0P

0G 0A

vs CBJ 03-26

0G 0A · 0 shots · 20:50 TOI

@ NSH

0P

0G 0A

@ NSH 03-28

0G 0A · 1 shots · 17:23 TOI

@ CAR

0P

0G 0A

@ CAR 03-29

0G 0A · 0 shots · 19:42 TOI

@ TBL

0P

0G 0A

@ TBL 03-31

0G 0A · 0 shots · 18:14 TOI

@ NYR

0P

0G 0A

@ NYR 04-02

0G 0A · 1 shots · 18:58 TOI

@ NJD

0P

0G 0A

@ NJD 04-04

0G 0A · 1 shots · 16:53 TOI

vs NJD

0P

0G 0A

vs NJD 04-05

0G 0A · 1 shots · 17:05 TOI

@ NYI

0P

0G 0A

@ NYI 04-12

0G 0A · 2 shots · 26:05 TOI

@ PHI

1P

0G 1A

@ PHI 04-14

0G 1A · 3 shots · 17:20 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)191 events shown

The office: the high slot - 1 of 2 goals live there

Defensive floor: 63 blocks · 12 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2022-23	Montréal Canadiens	44	4	14	18	-19
2023-24	Montréal Canadiens	70	6	16	22	-8
2024-25	Montréal Canadiens	55	6	12	18	6
2025-26	Montréal Canadiens	39	2	9	11	5
Career	1 team	208	18	51	69	-16