Regular season

Dawson Mercer

New Jersey Devils · C · #91

Middle-six playerMiddle-Six Engine?Reliable minutes: 42 points and honest two-way play

HT: 6'0"
WT: 180 lb
Age: 24
Shoots: R
From: Carbonear, CAN
Draft: 2020 NJD · R1 #18

72Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

7171pctl

5050pctl

6969pctl

7272pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.5161pctl

0.2467pctl

0.2757pctl

1.970pctl

-250pctl

763pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

9.7%86pctl

2.5074pctl

0.1147pctl

Def Suppression?

0.6675pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP

38.9%7pctl

D-Zone FO %?

35.6%4pctl

3.629pctl

0.3655pctl

1:3663pctl

1:3972pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 48 GP tracked · 15h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

52.0%68pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

40.0%15pctl

O-zone deployment?

50%49pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.6 min64pctl

Support received?

19.0 min7pctl

D-zone deployment?

50%51pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.1385pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.9192pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.5487pctl

0.99×51pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.17/gm71pctl

Pressure escape rate?

8.0%55pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1228 EV min

General Offense

5.1337

7.9252

Shot Setups/60?

1.0358

Chance Setups/60?

0.6437

Primary Contributions/60?

6.1642

Rebounds Created/60?

0.5462

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0547

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.6863

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.3453

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0565

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.1044

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.7669

Rush Offense/60?

6.9437

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.6444

0.8860

0.1548

Deflections/60?

1.4756

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.1044

Entries Finished/60?

0.3918

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.2017

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.5275

0.4978

1.0366

Retrieval Success %?

32%68

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0033

Exit Success %?

0%30

Forechecking

0.8310

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0042

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$4.00M

cap hit

$5.08M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

B

Good value (+$1.1M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Dawson Mercer	72	Middle-Six Engine	42 P · 82 GP	$4.00M	$5.08M	B+$1.1M	this player
Ben Kindel	71	Middle-Six Engine	35 P · 77 GP	$0.97M	$4.78M	A+$3.8M	85%
Shane Pinto	78	Middle-Six Engine	46 P · 72 GP	$3.75M	$6.95M	A+$3.2M	84%
Bobby McMann	74	Middle-Six Engine	46 P · 78 GP	$1.35M	$5.68M	A++$4.3M	83%
Brayden Schenn	70	Depth Forward	39 P · 80 GP	$6.50M	$4.50M	D−$2.0M	82%

Chemistry

Top connection: Nico Hischier · 12 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Dawson’s goals

Creates for

goals Dawson assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

7 pts · 5 G · 2 A · 24 shots in last 10Steady(-0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs CHI

1P

0G 1A

vs CHI 03-29

0G 1A · 2 shots · 21:10 TOI

@ NYR

0P

0G 0A

@ NYR 03-31

0G 0A · 1 shots · 17:51 TOI

vs WSH

2P

2G 0A

vs WSH 04-02

2G 0A · 6 shots · 20:00 TOI

vs MTL

1P

1G 0A

vs MTL 04-04

1G 0A · 3 shots · 21:47 TOI

@ MTL

0P

0G 0A

@ MTL 04-05

0G 0A · 1 shots · 21:34 TOI

vs PHI

0P

0G 0A

vs PHI 04-07

0G 0A · 1 shots · 17:45 TOI

vs PIT

0P

0G 0A

vs PIT 04-09

0G 0A · 0 shots · 17:21 TOI

@ DET

1P

1G 0A

@ DET 04-11

1G 0A · 3 shots · 20:58 TOI

vs OTT

2P

1G 1A

vs OTT 04-12

1G 1A · 5 shots · 18:56 TOI

@ BOS

0P

0G 0A

@ BOS 04-14

0G 0A · 2 shots · 16:25 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)411 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 7 of 20 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 28 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 68 blocks · 14 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2021-22	New Jersey Devils	82	17	25	42	-25
2022-23	New Jersey Devils	82	27	29	56	22
2023-24	New Jersey Devils	82	20	13	33	-26
2024-25	New Jersey Devils	82	19	17	36	4
2025-26	New Jersey Devils	82	20	22	42	-2
Career	1 team	410	103	106	209	-27