HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Timo Meier

New Jersey Devils · RW · #28
Top-six playerSniper?24 goals on 33.6 expected - a volume shooter
HT
6'1"
WT
220 lb
Age
29
Shoots
L
From
Herisau, CHE
Draft
2015 SJS · R1 #9
79Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
8484pctl
Playmaking?
6868pctl
Transition?
9191pctl
Defense?
7373pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.5766pctl
Goals / GP?
0.3181pctl
Assists / GP?
0.2655pctl
Shots / GP?
3.598pctl
Plus/Minus?
-1610pctl
PP Points?
1070pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
13.7%98pctl
ZEIS?
4.8498pctl
PSPL?
0.2589pctl
Def Suppression?
0.7179pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP
Shots / 60?
11.399pctl
Hits / 60?
5.561pctl
Take : Give?
0.3360pctl
Blocks / 60?
2.2368pctl
PP TOI / GP?
2:0064pctl
PK TOI / GP?
0:0953pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 43 GP tracked · 14h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
17.6 min66pctl
Support received?
19.3 min4pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1260 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$8.80M

cap hit

$7.28M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

D

Paying a premium ($1.5M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Timo Meier79$8.80MD$1.5Mthis player
Artturi Lehkonen80$4.50MA+$3.1M87%
Quinton Byfield77$6.25MC+$0.4M86%
Ryan Hartman77$4.00MA+$2.6M82%
Dylan Holloway85$2.29MA++$7.1M82%

Chemistry

Top connection: Nico Hischier · 16 goals together

Recent form · last 10 games

7 pts · 2 G · 5 A · 31 shots in last 10Cooling off(-0.6 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs CHI

1P

0G 1A

@ NYR

0P

0G 0A

vs WSH

1P

0G 1A

vs MTL

2P

1G 1A

@ MTL

1P

1G 0A

vs PHI

0P

0G 0A

vs PIT

0P

0G 0A

@ DET

1P

0G 1A

vs OTT

1P

0G 1A

@ BOS

0P

0G 0A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)548 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 12 of 24 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 51 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 71 blocks · 10 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2016-17San Jose Sharks343361
2017-18San Jose Sharks812115362
2018-19San Jose Sharks783036669
2019-20San Jose Sharks70222749-22
2020-21San Jose Sharks54121931-5
2021-22San Jose Sharks77354176-3
2022-23San Jose Sharks57312152-19
2022-23New Jersey Devils2195140
2023-24New Jersey Devils69282452-28
2024-25New Jersey Devils802627537
2025-26New Jersey Devils77242044-16
Career2 teams698241238479-74