Regular season

Dylan Guenther

Utah Mammoth · RW · #11

First-line playerSniper?40 goals on 29.1 expected - finishes above his chances

HT: 6'1"
WT: 191 lb
Age: 23
Shoots: R
From: Edmonton, CAN
Draft: 2021 ARI · R1 #9

85Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

8989pctl

7171pctl

8989pctl

1414pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.9291pctl

0.5197pctl

0.4279pctl

3.195pctl

+780pctl

2492pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

11.3%93pctl

4.6397pctl

0.1873pctl

Def Suppression?

-0.046pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

10.698pctl

2.934pctl

0.2427pctl

1.2223pctl

3:1589pctl

0:1658pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 48 GP tracked · 14h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

51.3%63pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

58.7%86pctl

O-zone deployment?

52%60pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.7 min70pctl

Support received?

18.3 min21pctl

D-zone deployment?

48%40pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.1071pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.3980pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.4373pctl

0.98×45pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.19/gm64pctl

Pressure escape rate?

8.9%73pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1096 EV min

General Offense

9.1489

12.0489

Shot Setups/60?

1.4284

Chance Setups/60?

0.9368

Primary Contributions/60?

10.5689

Rebounds Created/60?

0.4956

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.1682

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.7771

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.2744

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0569

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.3386

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

2.9690

Rush Offense/60?

14.0190

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.7761

0.8254

0.1653

Deflections/60?

1.8674

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0529

Entries Finished/60?

1.5389

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.8284

Entry → Chance %?

54%32

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.4269

0.1124

1.3181

Retrieval Success %?

8%15

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0034

Exit Success %?

0%30

Forechecking

3.0647

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0042

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$7.14M

cap hit

$9.36M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A

Team-friendly deal (+$2.2M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Dylan Guenther	85	Sniper	73 P · 79 GP	$7.14M	$9.36M	A+$2.2M	this player
Andrei Svechnikov	83	Sniper	70 P · 79 GP	$7.75M	$8.65M	B+$0.9M	92%
Cutter Gauthier	86	Sniper	69 P · 76 GP	$0.95M	$9.72M	A++$8.8M	90%
Alex Ovechkin	82	Sniper	64 P · 82 GP	$9.50M	$8.30M	D−$1.2M	88%
Artemi Panarin	86	Top-Six Threat	84 P · 78 GP	$11.64M	$9.72M	D−$1.9M	85%

Chemistry

Top connection: Clayton Keller · 17 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Dylan’s goals

Creates for

goals Dylan assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

14 pts · 6 G · 8 A · 29 shots in last 10Cooling off(-0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs EDM

0P

0G 0A

vs EDM 03-24

0G 0A · 1 shots · 22:12 TOI

vs WSH

2P

2G 0A

vs WSH 03-26

2G 0A · 8 shots · 21:00 TOI

@ LAK

1P

0G 1A

@ LAK 03-28

0G 1A · 2 shots · 18:03 TOI

@ SEA

3P

1G 2A

@ SEA 04-02

1G 2A · 3 shots · 16:48 TOI

@ VAN

2P

1G 1A

@ VAN 04-04

1G 1A · 2 shots · 17:03 TOI

vs EDM

2P

0G 2A

vs EDM 04-07

0G 2A · 4 shots · 18:10 TOI

vs NSH

2P

1G 1A

vs NSH 04-09

1G 1A · 3 shots · 17:58 TOI

vs CAR

1P

1G 0A

vs CAR 04-11

1G 0A · 4 shots · 20:47 TOI

@ CGY

0P

0G 0A

@ CGY 04-12

0G 0A · 1 shots · 15:38 TOI

vs WPG

1P

0G 1A

vs WPG 04-14

0G 1A · 1 shots · 18:22 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)530 events shown

The office: the right circle - 13 of 40 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 31 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 34 blocks · 2 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2022-23	Arizona Coyotes	33	6	9	15	-7
2023-24	Arizona Coyotes	45	18	17	35	-1
2024-25	Utah Hockey Club	70	27	33	60	-4
2025-26	Utah Mammoth	79	40	33	73	7
Career	3 teams	227	91	92	183	-5