Regular season

Noah Ostlund

Buffalo Sabres · C · #86

Bottom-six playerDepth Forward?27 points in 60 games in a supporting role

HT: 5'11"
WT: 180 lb
Age: 22
Shoots: L
From: Stockholm, SWE
Draft: 2022 BUF · R1 #16

63Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

3636pctl

3939pctl

3939pctl

6868pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.4553pctl

0.1849pctl

0.2756pctl

1.021pctl

+1186pctl

659pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

3.5%38pctl

1.7852pctl

0.0519pctl

Def Suppression?

0.5160pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP

31.5%1pctl

D-Zone FO %?

26.1%1pctl

4.535pctl

0.4983pctl

1:2057pctl

0:0323pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 35 GP tracked · 9h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

52.6%73pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

59.5%89pctl

O-zone deployment?

54%70pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.3 min44pctl

Support received?

18.2 min23pctl

D-zone deployment?

46%30pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0964pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.6238pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.1822pctl

0.97×38pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.20/gm61pctl

Pressure escape rate?

8.3%63pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 756 EV min

General Offense

4.2121

5.9621

Shot Setups/60?

0.9552

Chance Setups/60?

0.6439

Primary Contributions/60?

5.1624

Rebounds Created/60?

0.3231

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0029

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.6459

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.4062

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0037

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.1661

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.1939

Rush Offense/60?

6.4330

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.4829

0.2414

0.1652

Deflections/60?

1.1136

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0839

Entries Finished/60?

0.3218

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.2423

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.8381

0.7987

1.0365

Retrieval Success %?

43%80

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0035

Exit Success %?

0%32

Forechecking

0.7113

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0042

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$0.89M

cap hit

$2.68M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

B

Good value (+$1.8M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Noah Ostlund	63	Depth Forward	27 P · 60 GP	$0.89M	$2.68M	B+$1.8M	this player
Marco Kasper	60	Depth Forward	19 P · 81 GP	$0.89M	$2.03M	B+$1.1M	88%
Ryan Greene	63	Depth Forward	29 P · 81 GP	$0.95M	$2.68M	B+$1.7M	87%
Marat Khusnutdinov	63	Depth Forward	33 P · 77 GP	$0.93M	$2.68M	B+$1.8M	85%
Noah Laba	59	Depth Forward	24 P · 74 GP	$0.91M	$1.83M	B+$0.9M	83%

Chemistry

Top connection: Alex Tuch · 5 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Noah’s goals

Creates for

goals Noah assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

5 pts · 1 G · 4 A · 10 shots in last 10Steady(-0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs NSH

1P

0G 1A

vs NSH 03-07

0G 1A · 0 shots · 14:46 TOI

vs TBL

1P

0G 1A

vs TBL 03-08

0G 1A · 2 shots · 16:34 TOI

vs SJS

0P

0G 0A

vs SJS 03-10

0G 0A · 3 shots · 15:29 TOI

vs WSH

0P

0G 0A

vs WSH 03-12

0G 0A · 0 shots · 16:49 TOI

vs TOR

1P

0G 1A

vs TOR 03-14

0G 1A · 0 shots · 15:46 TOI

@ VGK

0P

0G 0A

@ VGK 03-17

0G 0A · 0 shots · 15:46 TOI

@ SJS

1P

1G 0A

@ SJS 03-19

1G 0A · 2 shots · 16:06 TOI

@ LAK

0P

0G 0A

@ LAK 03-21

0G 0A · 2 shots · 13:01 TOI

@ ANA

1P

0G 1A

@ ANA 03-22

0G 1A · 0 shots · 14:42 TOI

vs BOS

0P

0G 0A

vs BOS 03-25

0G 0A · 1 shots · 14:31 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)208 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 4 of 11 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 12 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 35 blocks · 10 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2024-25	Buffalo Sabres	8	0	0	0	-6
2025-26	Buffalo Sabres	60	11	16	27	11
Career	1 team	68	11	16	27	5