Regular season

Mattias Samuelsson

Buffalo Sabres · D · #23

Second-pair DSteady Blueliner?154 blocks across 78 games of regular duty

HT: 6'4"
WT: 229 lb
Age: 26
Shoots: L
From: Philadelphia, USA
Draft: 2018 BUF · R2 #32

77Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

8282pctl

5757pctl

6262pctl

6363pctl

League profile

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

0.5388pctl

0.1791pctl

0.3681pctl

1.470pctl

+4198pctl

027pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

3.3%35pctl

1.4540pctl

0.0832pctl

Def Suppression?

0.9992pctl

Defenseman toolkit

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

1.9793pctl

5.1876pctl

Blocks / 100 shifts?

7.585pctl

4.474pctl

0.2131pctl

0:0329pctl

2:5594pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 49 GP tracked · 19h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

46.9%26pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

60.5%91pctl

O-zone deployment?

49%44pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.7 min75pctl

Support received?

17.1 min55pctl

D-zone deployment?

51%56pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0426pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.3928pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.1617pctl

1.03×77pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.36/gm9pctl

Pressure escape rate?

7.9%52pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs defensemen · center = median · 1549 EV min

General Offense

3.8060

3.2555

Shot Setups/60?

0.5421

Chance Setups/60?

0.4626

Primary Contributions/60?

4.3451

Rebounds Created/60?

0.2334

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0879

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.2728

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.0421

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0034

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0843

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.7860

Rush Offense/60?

5.3545

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.1522

0.2758

0.0861

Deflections/60?

0.1267

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0456

Entries Finished/60?

0.2749

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.0840

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

2.3234

0.3535

1.9839

Retrieval Success %?

15%40

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0036

Exit Success %?

0%36

Forechecking

0.5871

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0048

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$4.29M

cap hit

$7.09M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A

Team-friendly deal (+$2.8M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Mattias Samuelsson	77	Steady Blueliner	41 P · 78 GP	$4.29M	$7.09M	A+$2.8M	this player
Mike Matheson	77	Steady Blueliner	37 P · 78 GP	$4.88M	$7.09M	A+$2.2M	91%
Simon Edvinsson	76	Steady Blueliner	25 P · 72 GP	$0.89M	$6.75M	A++$5.9M	87%
Mattias Ekholm	76	Steady Blueliner	41 P · 82 GP	$6.25M	$6.75M	C+$0.5M	84%
Jacob Trouba	79	Steady Blueliner	35 P · 81 GP	$8.00M	$7.80M	C−$0.2M	83%

Chemistry

Top connection: Ryan McLeod · 6 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Mattias’s goals

Creates for

goals Mattias assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

2 pts · 1 G · 1 A · 12 shots in last 10Cooling off(-0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs BOS

0P

0G 0A

vs BOS 03-25

0G 0A · 1 shots · 21:16 TOI

vs DET

0P

0G 0A

vs DET 03-27

0G 0A · 0 shots · 21:51 TOI

vs SEA

0P

0G 0A

vs SEA 03-28

0G 0A · 3 shots · 26:14 TOI

vs NYI

1P

0G 1A

vs NYI 03-31

0G 1A · 1 shots · 22:44 TOI

@ OTT

1P

1G 0A

@ OTT 04-02

1G 0A · 2 shots · 20:49 TOI

@ WSH

0P

0G 0A

@ WSH 04-04

0G 0A · 2 shots · 19:54 TOI

vs TBL

0P

0G 0A

vs TBL 04-06

0G 0A · 1 shots · 22:44 TOI

@ NYR

0P

0G 0A

@ NYR 04-08

0G 0A · 0 shots · 20:39 TOI

vs CBJ

0P

0G 0A

vs CBJ 04-09

0G 0A · 2 shots · 21:03 TOI

@ CHI

0P

0G 0A

@ CHI 04-13

0G 0A · 0 shots · 18:59 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)417 events shown

The office: the right circle - 3 of 13 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 13 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 154 blocks · 10 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2020-21	Buffalo Sabres	12	0	2	2	-8
2021-22	Buffalo Sabres	42	0	10	10	-10
2022-23	Buffalo Sabres	55	2	8	10	14
2023-24	Buffalo Sabres	41	1	6	7	4
2024-25	Buffalo Sabres	62	4	10	14	3
2025-26	Buffalo Sabres	78	13	28	41	41
Career	1 team	290	20	64	84	44