Regular season

Josh Doan

Buffalo Sabres · RW · #91

Top-six playerMiddle-Six Engine?Reliable minutes: 52 points and honest two-way play

HT: 6'2"
WT: 198 lb
Age: 24
Shoots: R
From: Scottsdale, USA
Draft: 2021 ARI · R2 #37

77Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

7777pctl

6666pctl

7373pctl

5757pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.6372pctl

0.3079pctl

0.3367pctl

2.174pctl

-442pctl

1783pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

9.7%86pctl

2.9583pctl

0.1873pctl

Def Suppression?

0.3540pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

7.875pctl

3.644pctl

0.7298pctl

1.4232pctl

2:4778pctl

0:0129pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 51 GP tracked · 14h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

51.7%66pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

49.2%48pctl

O-zone deployment?

48%42pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.5 min59pctl

Support received?

18.3 min19pctl

D-zone deployment?

52%58pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.1071pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

2.0394pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.6695pctl

1.01×62pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.23/gm47pctl

Pressure escape rate?

6.8%25pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1072 EV min

General Offense

7.3379

10.0279

Shot Setups/60?

1.0156

Chance Setups/60?

0.7855

Primary Contributions/60?

8.3477

Rebounds Created/60?

0.4548

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.1170

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.8476

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.7388

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0036

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0632

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.6866

Rush Offense/60?

9.1270

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.7355

1.2983

0.3986

Deflections/60?

2.1884

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.1763

Entries Finished/60?

0.9066

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.3941

Entry → Chance %?

44%16

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.9687

0.8490

1.1271

Retrieval Success %?

43%82

Exit Involvements/60?

0.1788

Exit Success %?

9%79

Forechecking

3.4150

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0042

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$0.93M

cap hit

$6.62M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

A+

Massive surplus value (+$5.7M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Josh Doan	77	Middle-Six Engine	52 P · 82 GP	$0.93M	$6.62M	A++$5.7M	this player
Alexis Lafrenière	77	Middle-Six Engine	57 P · 82 GP	$7.45M	$6.62M	D−$0.8M	90%
Owen Tippett	79	Middle-Six Engine	51 P · 81 GP	$6.20M	$7.28M	B+$1.1M	86%
Jackson Blake	79	Middle-Six Engine	53 P · 81 GP	$0.91M	$7.28M	A++$6.4M	85%
Artturi Lehkonen	80	Middle-Six Engine	48 P · 70 GP	$4.50M	$7.61M	A+$3.1M	85%

Chemistry

Top connection: Tage Thompson · 14 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Josh’s goals

Creates for

goals Josh assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

5 pts · 2 G · 3 A · 12 shots in last 10Heating up(+1.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs DET

0P

0G 0A

vs DET 03-27

0G 0A · 1 shots · 15:18 TOI

vs SEA

0P

0G 0A

vs SEA 03-28

0G 0A · 0 shots · 13:21 TOI

vs NYI

0P

0G 0A

vs NYI 03-31

0G 0A · 1 shots · 13:17 TOI

@ OTT

0P

0G 0A

@ OTT 04-02

0G 0A · 2 shots · 18:25 TOI

@ WSH

0P

0G 0A

@ WSH 04-04

0G 0A · 1 shots · 12:57 TOI

vs TBL

1P

0G 1A

vs TBL 04-06

0G 1A · 0 shots · 14:40 TOI

@ NYR

1P

0G 1A

@ NYR 04-08

0G 1A · 1 shots · 13:08 TOI

vs CBJ

2P

2G 0A

vs CBJ 04-09

2G 0A · 4 shots · 14:42 TOI

@ CHI

1P

0G 1A

@ CHI 04-13

0G 1A · 1 shots · 13:29 TOI

vs DAL

0P

0G 0A

vs DAL 04-15

0G 0A · 1 shots · 15:57 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)315 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 15 of 25 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 23 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 38 blocks · 15 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2023-24	Arizona Coyotes	11	5	4	9	6
2024-25	Utah Hockey Club	51	7	12	19	-2
2025-26	Buffalo Sabres	82	25	27	52	-4
Career	3 teams	144	37	43	80	0