HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Stefan Noesen

New Jersey Devils · RW · #11
Bottom-six playerDepth Forward?7 points in 38 games in a supporting role
HT
6'1"
WT
205 lb
Age
33
Shoots
R
From
Plano, USA
Draft
2011 OTT · R1 #21
57Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
3636pctl
Playmaking?
2222pctl
Transition?
3737pctl
Defense?
4747pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.1813pctl
Goals / GP?
0.0817pctl
Assists / GP?
0.1115pctl
Shots / GP?
1.443pctl
Plus/Minus?
-1217pctl
PP Points?
346pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
5.9%63pctl
ZEIS?
1.4339pctl
PSPL?
0.0414pctl
Def Suppression?
0.5059pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP
Shots / 60?
7.058pctl
Hits / 60?
4.452pctl
Take : Give?
0.134pctl
Blocks / 60?
2.0162pctl
PP TOI / GP?
1:3754pctl
PK TOI / GP?
0:0348pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 18 GP tracked · 4h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
16.8 min13pctl
Support received?
17.3 min49pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 383 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$2.75M

cap hit

$1.46M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

D

Paying a premium ($1.3M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Stefan Noesen57$2.75MD$1.3Mthis player
David Tomasek60--90%
Isak Rosen59$0.89MB+$0.9M90%
Frank Vatrano56$4.57MF$3.3M83%
Nick Paul61$3.15MD$0.9M82%

Chemistry

Top connection: Jesper Bratt · 3 goals together

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

2 pts · 1 G · 1 A · 15 shots in last 10Cooling off(-0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ UTA

1P

1G 0A

vs BUF

0P

0G 0A

@ NYI

0P

0G 0A

vs WSH

1P

0G 1A

@ TOR

0P

0G 0A

@ CBJ

0P

0G 0A

vs UTA

0P

0G 0A

vs CAR

0P

0G 0A

@ NYI

0P

0G 0A

@ PIT

0P

0G 0A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)93 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 2 of 3 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 14 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 21 blocks · 3 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2014-15Anaheim Ducks10000
2015-16Anaheim Ducks10000
2016-17Anaheim Ducks122022
2016-17New Jersey Devils326284
2017-18New Jersey Devils7213142712
2018-19New Jersey Devils41358-19
2019-20Pittsburgh Penguins61010
2019-20San Jose Sharks34628-1
2020-21San Jose Sharks50000
2020-21Toronto Maple Leafs10000
2021-22Carolina Hurricanes20001
2022-23Carolina Hurricanes7813233611
2023-24Carolina Hurricanes8114233713
2024-25New Jersey Devils78221941-8
2025-26New Jersey Devils38347-12
Career6 teams48283921753