HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Morgan Rielly

Toronto Maple Leafs · D · #44
Second-pair DSteady Blueliner?114 blocks across 78 games of regular duty
HT
6'1"
WT
219 lb
Age
32
Shoots
L
From
Vancouver, CAN
Draft
2012 TOR · R1 #5
77Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
8080pctl
Playmaking?
7070pctl
Transition?
8080pctl
Defense?
4949pctl

League profile

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.4681pctl
Goals / GP?
0.1487pctl
Assists / GP?
0.3275pctl
Shots / GP?
1.883pctl
Plus/Minus?
-186pctl
PP Points?
678pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
3.8%42pctl
ZEIS?
2.4273pctl
PSPL?
0.1563pctl
Def Suppression?
0.5463pctl

Defenseman toolkit

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP
Blocks / GP?
1.4663pctl
Blocks / 60?
4.1450pctl
Hits / 60?
1.322pctl
Take : Give?
0.2546pctl
PP TOI / GP?
2:1787pctl
PK TOI / GP?
0:4223pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 46 GP tracked · 16h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
17.4 min45pctl
Support received?
16.6 min73pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs defensemen · center = median · 1416 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$7.50M

cap hit

$7.09M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal ($0.4M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Morgan Rielly77$7.50MC$0.4Mthis player
Jamie Drysdale75$2.30MA++$4.1M87%
Vince Dunn78$7.35MC+$0.1M86%
Brandon Montour77$7.14MC$0.1M84%
Alexander Nikishin76$0.93MA++$5.8M84%

Recent form · last 10 games

3 pts · 2 G · 1 A · 13 shots in last 10Steady(-0.2 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs NYR

0P

0G 0A

@ STL

0P

0G 0A

@ ANA

2P

1G 1A

@ SJS

0P

0G 0A

@ LAK

0P

0G 0A

vs WSH

0P

0G 0A

@ NYI

1P

1G 0A

vs FLA

0P

0G 0A

vs DAL

0P

0G 0A

@ OTT

0P

0G 0A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)465 events shown

The office: the right circle - 5 of 11 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 31 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 112 blocks · 11 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2013-14Toronto Maple Leafs7322527-13
2014-15Toronto Maple Leafs8182129-16
2015-16Toronto Maple Leafs8292736-17
2016-17Toronto Maple Leafs7662127-20
2017-18Toronto Maple Leafs7664652-4
2018-19Toronto Maple Leafs8220527224
2019-20Toronto Maple Leafs47324276
2020-21Toronto Maple Leafs555303511
2021-22Toronto Maple Leafs8210586816
2022-23Toronto Maple Leafs6543741-9
2023-24Toronto Maple Leafs72751587
2024-25Toronto Maple Leafs8273441-8
2025-26Toronto Maple Leafs78112536-18
Career1 team95198451549-41