HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Auston Matthews

Toronto Maple Leafs · C · #34
First-line playerSniper?27 goals on 28.8 expected - a volume shooter
HT
6'3"
WT
215 lb
Age
28
Shoots
L
From
San Ramon, USA
Draft
2016 TOR · R1 #1
86Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
8989pctl
Playmaking?
7979pctl
Transition?
8888pctl
Defense?
8989pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.8888pctl
Goals / GP?
0.4594pctl
Assists / GP?
0.4381pctl
Shots / GP?
3.8100pctl
Plus/Minus?
-442pctl
PP Points?
1274pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
16.1%100pctl
ZEIS?
4.4396pctl
PSPL?
0.2790pctl
Def Suppression?
1.2497pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP
Faceoff %?
59.7%97pctl
D-Zone FO %?
56.8%89pctl
Draws / GP
16.290pctl
Take : Give?
0.5991pctl
PP TOI / GP?
2:4677pctl
PK TOI / GP?
1:1058pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 33 GP tracked · 11h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
18.4 min100pctl
Support received?
18.3 min21pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1012 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$13.25M

cap hit

$9.72M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

F

Well above market ($3.5M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Auston Matthews86$13.25MF$3.5Mthis player
Nick Schmaltz87$5.85MA++$4.2M88%
Nico Hischier85$7.25MA+$2.1M86%
Nick Suzuki91$7.88MA++$4.1M83%
Wyatt Johnston90$8.40MA+$2.8M82%

Recent form · last 10 games

6 pts · 1 G · 5 A · 34 shots in last 10Cooling off(-0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ EDM

1P

0G 1A

@ TBL

1P

0G 1A

@ FLA

1P

0G 1A

vs OTT

1P

0G 1A

vs PHI

0P

0G 0A

@ NJD

1P

0G 1A

@ NYR

0P

0G 0A

vs TBL

0P

0G 0A

@ MTL

0P

0G 0A

vs ANA

1P

1G 0A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)689 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 11 of 27 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 31 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 87 blocks · 8 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2016-17Toronto Maple Leafs824029692
2017-18Toronto Maple Leafs6234296325
2018-19Toronto Maple Leafs68373673-9
2019-20Toronto Maple Leafs7047338019
2020-21Toronto Maple Leafs5241256621
2021-22Toronto Maple Leafs73604610620
2022-23Toronto Maple Leafs7440458531
2023-24Toronto Maple Leafs81693810731
2024-25Toronto Maple Leafs6733457811
2025-26Toronto Maple Leafs60272653-4
Career1 team689428352780147