Regular season

Matthew Knies

Toronto Maple Leafs · LW · #23

Top-six playerMiddle-Six Engine?Reliable minutes: 66 points and honest two-way play

HT: 6'3"
WT: 232 lb
Age: 23
Shoots: L
From: Phoenix, USA
Draft: 2021 TOR · R2 #57

81Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

7373pctl

7676pctl

5959pctl

6060pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.8485pctl

0.2976pctl

0.5491pctl

1.865pctl

-301pctl

1682pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

9.9%87pctl

1.9660pctl

0.1873pctl

Def Suppression?

0.4654pctl

Winger toolkit

vs. wingers with 20+ GP

5.728pctl

6.165pctl

0.3871pctl

1.2926pctl

2:4177pctl

1:0779pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 50 GP tracked · 16h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

39.7%2pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

45.6%32pctl

O-zone deployment?

48%43pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.8 min83pctl

Support received?

18.1 min27pctl

D-zone deployment?

52%57pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.1592pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

1.9192pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.4575pctl

0.98×43pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.19/gm63pctl

Pressure escape rate?

9.6%84pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 1183 EV min

General Offense

4.0617

6.9033

Shot Setups/60?

0.5620

Chance Setups/60?

0.5126

Primary Contributions/60?

4.6116

Rebounds Created/60?

0.2523

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0027

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.3524

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.3050

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0036

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.1560

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

0.6613

Rush Offense/60?

5.9322

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.6647

0.6131

0.2065

Deflections/60?

1.3248

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.1559

Entries Finished/60?

0.6643

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.6171

Entry → Chance %?

92%90

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

1.2256

0.2547

0.9660

Retrieval Success %?

21%38

Exit Involvements/60?

0.1078

Exit Success %?

8%78

Forechecking

5.2767

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0577

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$7.75M

cap hit

$7.95M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal (+$0.2M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Matthew Knies	81	Middle-Six Engine	66 P · 79 GP	$7.75M	$7.95M	C+$0.2M	this player
Pavel Buchnevich	76	Middle-Six Engine	48 P · 81 GP	$8.00M	$6.30M	D−$1.7M	85%
Artturi Lehkonen	80	Middle-Six Engine	48 P · 70 GP	$4.50M	$7.61M	A+$3.1M	84%
Alexis Lafrenière	77	Middle-Six Engine	57 P · 82 GP	$7.45M	$6.62M	D−$0.8M	84%
Valeri Nichushkin	79	Middle-Six Engine	49 P · 72 GP	$6.13M	$7.28M	B+$1.2M	83%

Chemistry

Top connection: John Tavares · 19 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Matthew’s goals

Creates for

goals Matthew assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

7 pts · 3 G · 4 A · 10 shots in last 10Cooling off(-0.6 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs NYR

0P

0G 0A

vs NYR 03-25

0G 0A · 1 shots · 15:25 TOI

@ STL

0P

0G 0A

@ STL 03-28

0G 0A · 0 shots · 15:26 TOI

@ ANA

1P

1G 0A

@ ANA 03-30

1G 0A · 1 shots · 19:11 TOI

@ SJS

0P

0G 0A

@ SJS 04-02

0G 0A · 1 shots · 17:36 TOI

@ LAK

4P

2G 2A

@ LAK 04-04

2G 2A · 2 shots · 19:44 TOI

vs WSH

0P

0G 0A

vs WSH 04-08

0G 0A · 2 shots · 17:56 TOI

@ NYI

0P

0G 0A

@ NYI 04-09

0G 0A · 0 shots · 18:56 TOI

vs FLA

0P

0G 0A

vs FLA 04-11

0G 0A · 1 shots · 16:30 TOI

vs DAL

2P

0G 2A

vs DAL 04-13

0G 2A · 1 shots · 19:31 TOI

@ OTT

0P

0G 0A

@ OTT 04-15

0G 0A · 1 shots · 16:39 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)243 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 10 of 23 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 19 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 53 blocks · 11 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2022-23	Toronto Maple Leafs	3	0	1	1	1
2023-24	Toronto Maple Leafs	80	15	20	35	9
2024-25	Toronto Maple Leafs	78	29	29	58	7
2025-26	Toronto Maple Leafs	79	23	43	66	-30
Career	1 team	240	67	93	160	-13