HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Casey Mittelstadt

Boston Bruins · C · #11
Middle-six playerDepth Forward?42 points in 71 games in a supporting role
HT
6'1"
WT
205 lb
Age
27
Shoots
L
From
Eden Prairie, USA
Draft
2017 BUF · R1 #8
66Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
4949pctl
Playmaking?
4242pctl
Transition?
2626pctl
Defense?
1212pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.5968pctl
Goals / GP?
0.2159pctl
Assists / GP?
0.3874pctl
Shots / GP?
1.129pctl
Plus/Minus?
+1287pctl
PP Points?
763pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
5.4%59pctl
ZEIS?
1.0422pctl
PSPL?
0.0310pctl
Def Suppression?
0.048pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP
Faceoff %?
48.9%47pctl
D-Zone FO %?
53.3%71pctl
Draws / GP
2.626pctl
Take : Give?
0.167pctl
PP TOI / GP?
1:4365pctl
PK TOI / GP?
0:0112pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 45 GP tracked · 12h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
17.9 min87pctl
Support received?
17.8 min35pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 954 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$5.75M

cap hit

$3.42M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

D

Paying a premium ($2.3M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Casey Mittelstadt66$5.75MD$2.3Mthis player
Calum Ritchie65$0.92MA+$2.2M87%
Tyler Seguin69$9.85MF$5.6M83%
Connor Zary63$3.77MD$1.1M78%
Ryan Strome64$5.00MD$2.1M78%

Recent form · last 10 games

6 pts · 2 G · 4 A · 10 shots in last 10Cooling off(-0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ BUF

1P

1G 0A

vs MIN

3P

0G 3A

@ CBJ

0P

0G 0A

vs DAL

0P

0G 0A

@ FLA

0P

0G 0A

@ TBL

1P

1G 0A

@ PHI

1P

0G 1A

@ CAR

0P

0G 0A

vs TBL

0P

0G 0A

@ CBJ

0P

0G 0A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)234 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 7 of 15 goals live there

Defensive floor: 21 blocks · 5 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2017-18Buffalo Sabres61451
2018-19Buffalo Sabres77121325-19
2019-20Buffalo Sabres31459-5
2020-21Buffalo Sabres41101222-10
2021-22Buffalo Sabres4061319-14
2022-23Buffalo Sabres82154459-8
2023-24Buffalo Sabres6214334712
2023-24Colorado Avalanche184610-2
2024-25Colorado Avalanche63112334-12
2024-25Boston Bruins18426-17
2025-26Boston Bruins7115274212
Career3 teams50996182278-62