Regular season

Nils Lundkvist

Dallas Stars · D · #5

Depth DDepth Defenseman?11 points and 48 blocks in 52 games in a supporting role

HT: 6'1"
WT: 194 lb
Age: 26
Shoots: R
From: Pitea, SWE
Draft: 2018 NYR · R1 #28

60Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

4141pctl

4646pctl

4545pctl

2222pctl

League profile

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

0.2135pctl

0.0651pctl

0.1528pctl

0.932pctl

+1280pctl

027pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

1.3%9pctl

1.2129pctl

0.1355pctl

Def Suppression?

0.069pctl

Defenseman toolkit

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP

0.9218pctl

3.3624pctl

Blocks / 100 shifts?

4.521pctl

1.835pctl

0.1612pctl

0:0645pctl

0:065pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 36 GP tracked · 10h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

48.1%37pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

58.1%84pctl

O-zone deployment?

44%27pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.3 min40pctl

Support received?

17.1 min53pctl

D-zone deployment?

56%73pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0426pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.145pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.1210pctl

0.88×6pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.22/gm49pctl

Pressure escape rate?

7.8%49pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs defensemen · center = median · 846 EV min

General Offense

3.1237

2.4827

Shot Setups/60?

0.9264

Chance Setups/60?

0.7158

Primary Contributions/60?

4.0444

Rebounds Created/60?

0.5779

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.0774

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.3545

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.2165

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0035

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.2886

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

0.9916

Rush Offense/60?

6.2463

Shots off HD Setups/60?

0.2851

0.2148

0.0758

Deflections/60?

0.0752

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.0032

Entries Finished/60?

0.3566

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.1460

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

2.9162

0.3538

2.5568

Retrieval Success %?

12%34

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0038

Exit Success %?

0%38

Forechecking

0.2124

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0048

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$1.25M

cap hit

$2.12M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

B

Good value (+$0.9M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Nils Lundkvist	60	Depth Defenseman	11 P · 52 GP	$1.25M	$2.12M	B+$0.9M	this player
Tyler Tucker	61	Depth Defenseman	17 P · 69 GP	$0.93M	$2.35M	B+$1.4M	90%
Samuel Girard	63	Depth Defenseman	19 P · 60 GP	$5.00M	$2.83M	D−$2.2M	90%
Emil Andrae	60	Depth Defenseman	13 P · 61 GP	$0.90M	$2.12M	B+$1.2M	87%
Sam Dickinson	59	Depth Defenseman	14 P · 72 GP	$0.94M	$1.91M	B+$1.0M	87%

Chemistry

Top connection: Mikko Rantanen · 3 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Nils’s goals

Creates for

goals Nils assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

2 pts · 0 G · 2 A · 6 shots in last 10Steady(+0.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs VGK

0P

0G 0A

vs VGK 03-22

0G 0A · 0 shots · 15:50 TOI

vs NJD

1P

0G 1A

vs NJD 03-24

0G 1A · 3 shots · 15:53 TOI

@ NYI

0P

0G 0A

@ NYI 03-26

0G 0A · 2 shots · 18:14 TOI

@ PIT

0P

0G 0A

@ PIT 03-28

0G 0A · 0 shots · 14:47 TOI

@ PHI

0P

0G 0A

@ PHI 03-29

0G 0A · 0 shots · 17:56 TOI

@ BOS

0P

0G 0A

@ BOS 03-31

0G 0A · 1 shots · 17:53 TOI

vs WPG

0P

0G 0A

vs WPG 04-02

0G 0A · 0 shots · 15:39 TOI

vs COL

0P

0G 0A

vs COL 04-04

0G 0A · 0 shots · 13:43 TOI

vs CGY

1P

0G 1A

vs CGY 04-07

0G 1A · 0 shots · 14:00 TOI

@ BUF

0P

0G 0A

@ BUF 04-15

0G 0A · 0 shots · 20:26 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)184 events shown

The office: the high slot - 1 of 3 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 13 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 47 blocks · 6 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2021-22	New York Rangers	25	1	3	4	4
2022-23	Dallas Stars	60	6	10	16	-5
2023-24	Dallas Stars	59	2	17	19	13
2024-25	Dallas Stars	39	0	5	5	4
2025-26	Dallas Stars	52	3	8	11	12
Career	2 teams	235	12	43	55	28