Regular season

Nico Sturm

Minnesota Wild · C · #78

Bottom-six playerDepth Forward?11 points in 49 games in a supporting role

HT: 6'3"
WT: 209 lb
Age: 31
Shoots: L
From: Augsburg, DEU

56Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group

3030pctl

2222pctl

2020pctl

6060pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP

0.2219pctl

0.1024pctl

0.1219pctl

0.87pctl

058pctl

016pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed

4.2%46pctl

0.9620pctl

0.0414pctl

Def Suppression?

0.4349pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP

55.1%85pctl

D-Zone FO %?

54.5%79pctl

7.651pctl

0.5085pctl

0:014pctl

1:4677pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 32 GP tracked · 6h TOI

On-ice xG share (5v5)?

43.5%10pctl

On-ice goal share (5v5)?

37.5%10pctl

O-zone deployment?

34%7pctl

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job

Competition faced?

17.2 min36pctl

Support received?

16.3 min86pctl

D-zone deployment?

66%93pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

Cross-slot shots / GP?

0.0747pctl

Net-front presence / GP?

0.6540pctl

Second-chance touches / GP?

0.2641pctl

1.04×80pctl

Cross-slot suppressed?

0.22/gm51pctl

Pressure escape rate?

6.8%24pctl

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 449 EV min

General Offense

3.8822

5.6223

Shot Setups/60?

0.5425

Chance Setups/60?

0.2721

Primary Contributions/60?

4.4121

Rebounds Created/60?

0.1321

Playmaking Sequences

Point Shot Setups/60?

0.1371

Center-Lane Setups/60?

0.1320

High-Danger Setups/60?

0.2744

Deflection Setups/60?

0.0039

One-Timer Setups/60?

0.0025

Offense Types

Cycle Offense/60?

1.2042

Rush Offense/60?

4.2819

Shots off HD Setups/60?

1.2079

0.8051

0.2770

Deflections/60?

1.2042

Zone Entries

Entries Started/60?

0.1354

Entries Finished/60?

0.2721

Entries w/ Chance/60?

0.2730

DZ Retrievals / Exits

DZ Involvements/60?

0.9438

0.2749

0.6737

Exit Involvements/60?

0.0037

Forechecking

5.4965

Dump-In Recoveries/60?

0.0043

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$2.00M

cap hit

$1.30M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal (−$0.7M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit

Player	Alpha	Archetype	Production	Cap hit	Market	Value	Match
Nico Sturm	56	Depth Forward	11 P · 49 GP	$2.00M	$1.30M	C−$0.7M	this player
Adam Edstrom	55	Depth Forward	5 P · 35 GP	$0.97M	$1.16M	C+$0.2M	93%
Casey Cizikas	55	Depth Forward	18 P · 81 GP	$2.50M	$1.16M	D−$1.3M	92%
Juuso Parssinen	56	Depth Forward	3 P · 20 GP	$1.25M	$1.30M	C+$0.1M	90%
Josh Samanski	55	Depth Forward	4 P · 24 GP	$0.97M	$1.16M	C+$0.2M	88%

Chemistry

Top connection: Jonas Brodin · 3 goals together

Finishes from

assisters on Nico’s goals

Creates for

goals Nico assisted on

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

2 pts · 2 G · 0 A · 7 shots in last 10Steady(+0.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

@ VGK

0P

0G 0A

@ VGK 03-06

0G 0A · 0 shots · 10:59 TOI

@ COL

1P

1G 0A

@ COL 03-08

1G 0A · 1 shots · 7:47 TOI

vs NYR

0P

0G 0A

vs NYR 03-14

0G 0A · 1 shots · 8:26 TOI

vs TOR

0P

0G 0A

vs TOR 03-15

0G 0A · 1 shots · 7:49 TOI

@ CHI

0P

0G 0A

@ CHI 03-17

0G 0A · 0 shots · 11:39 TOI

vs CHI

1P

1G 0A

vs CHI 03-19

1G 0A · 1 shots · 11:12 TOI

vs DAL

0P

0G 0A

vs DAL 03-21

0G 0A · 1 shots · 12:30 TOI

@ NSH

0P

0G 0A

@ NSH 04-11

0G 0A · 0 shots · 10:20 TOI

@ STL

0P

0G 0A

@ STL 04-13

0G 0A · 2 shots · 11:13 TOI

vs ANA

0P

0G 0A

vs ANA 04-14

0G 0A · 0 shots · 13:56 TOI

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit＋ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)208 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 2 of 5 goals live there

Defensive floor: 21 blocks · 7 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−
2018-19	Minnesota Wild	2	0	0	0	0
2019-20	Minnesota Wild	6	0	2	2	2
2020-21	Minnesota Wild	50	11	6	17	10
2021-22	Minnesota Wild	53	9	8	17	-5
2021-22	Colorado Avalanche	21	0	3	3	-2
2022-23	San Jose Sharks	74	14	12	26	-13
2023-24	San Jose Sharks	63	5	8	13	-25
2024-25	San Jose Sharks	47	7	6	13	-4
2024-25	Florida Panthers	15	0	1	1	-2
2025-26	Minnesota Wild	49	5	6	11	0
Career	4 teams	380	51	52	103	-39