HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Jonathan Marchessault

Nashville Predators · C · #81
Middle-six playerMiddle-Six Engine?Reliable minutes: 31 points and honest two-way play
HT
5'9"
WT
185 lb
Age
35
Shoots
R
From
Cap-Rouge, CAN
71Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
6363pctl
Playmaking?
6161pctl
Transition?
6868pctl
Defense?
1414pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.5060pctl
Goals / GP?
0.1952pctl
Assists / GP?
0.3164pctl
Shots / GP?
2.177pctl
Plus/Minus?
-187pctl
PP Points?
866pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
9.6%85pctl
ZEIS?
2.4473pctl
PSPL?
0.1667pctl
Def Suppression?
-0.163pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP
Draws / GP
0.712pctl
Take : Give?
0.2318pctl
PP TOI / GP?
2:4877pctl
PK TOI / GP?
0:004pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 43 GP tracked · 12h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
17.6 min60pctl
Support received?
18.2 min24pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 862 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$5.50M

cap hit

$4.78M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

C

Fair market deal ($0.7M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Jonathan Marchessault71$5.50MC$0.7Mthis player
Ivan Demidov75$0.94MA++$5.0M87%
Matvei Michkov75$0.95MA++$5.0M86%
JJ Peterka74$7.70MD$2.0M86%
Chris Kreider75$6.50MC$0.5M84%

Chemistry

Top connection: Filip Forsberg · 9 goals together

Recent form · last 10 games

3 pts · 1 G · 2 A · 16 shots in last 10Cooling off(-0.6 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs NJD

0P

0G 0A

vs MTL

0P

0G 0A

@ TBL

0P

0G 0A

@ LAK

2P

1G 1A

@ SJS

1P

0G 1A

@ LAK

0P

0G 0A

@ ANA

0P

0G 0A

@ UTA

0P

0G 0A

vs MIN

0P

0G 0A

vs SJS

0P

0G 0A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)283 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 6 of 12 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 22 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 14 blocks · 4 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2012-13Columbus Blue Jackets2000-1
2014-15Tampa Bay Lightning21011
2015-16Tampa Bay Lightning4571118-10
2016-17Florida Panthers75302151-21
2017-18Vegas Golden Knights7727487536
2018-19Vegas Golden Knights822534592
2019-20Vegas Golden Knights662225476
2020-21Vegas Golden Knights5518264419
2021-22Vegas Golden Knights763036663
2022-23Vegas Golden Knights762829572
2023-24Vegas Golden Knights82422769-2
2024-25Nashville Predators78213556-29
2025-26Nashville Predators62121931-18
Career5 teams778263311574-12