HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Victor Hedman

Tampa Bay Lightning · D · #77
Third-pair DSteady Blueliner?44 blocks across 33 games of regular duty
HT
6'7"
WT
244 lb
Age
35
Shoots
L
From
Ornskoldsvik, SWE
Draft
2009 TBL · R1 #2
72Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
5050pctl
Playmaking?
7575pctl
Transition?
6464pctl
Defense?
4141pctl

League profile

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.5287pctl
Goals / GP?
0.0327pctl
Assists / GP?
0.4891pctl
Shots / GP?
1.578pctl
Plus/Minus?
-144pctl
PP Points?
678pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
2.7%28pctl
ZEIS?
1.7349pctl
PSPL?
0.1667pctl
Def Suppression?
0.3338pctl

Defenseman toolkit

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP
Blocks / GP?
1.3355pctl
Blocks / 60?
4.2454pctl
Hits / 60?
1.835pctl
Take : Give?
0.2027pctl
PP TOI / GP?
2:1286pctl
PK TOI / GP?
1:6069pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 22 GP tracked · 7h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
17.2 min37pctl
Support received?
16.9 min62pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs defensemen · center = median · 484 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$8.00M

cap hit

$5.42M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

F

Well above market ($2.6M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Victor Hedman72$8.00MF$2.6Mthis player
Kris Letang71$6.10MD$1.0M86%
Cam Fowler69$6.50MD$2.0M86%
Charle-Edouard D'Astous73$0.78MA++$5.0M79%
Artyom Levshunov66$0.97MA+$2.7M79%

Chemistry

Top connection: Anthony Cirelli · 4 goals together

From official goal credits - scorer + assists on every goal, all season.

Recent form · last 10 games

4 pts · 1 G · 3 A · 16 shots in last 10Steady(+0.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs BUF

2P

1G 1A

@ MIN

0P

0G 0A

@ WPG

0P

0G 0A

@ TOR

0P

0G 0A

@ BUF

0P

0G 0A

vs CBJ

1P

0G 1A

vs DET

0P

0G 0A

vs CAR

1P

0G 1A

@ SEA

0P

0G 0A

@ VAN

0P

0G 0A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)187 events shown

Playmaking gravity: 11 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 44 blocks · 6 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2009-10Tampa Bay Lightning7441620-3
2010-11Tampa Bay Lightning79323263
2011-12Tampa Bay Lightning6151823-9
2012-13Tampa Bay Lightning44416201
2013-14Tampa Bay Lightning751342555
2014-15Tampa Bay Lightning5910283812
2015-16Tampa Bay Lightning7810374721
2016-17Tampa Bay Lightning791656723
2017-18Tampa Bay Lightning7717466332
2018-19Tampa Bay Lightning7012425424
2019-20Tampa Bay Lightning6611445527
2020-21Tampa Bay Lightning54936455
2021-22Tampa Bay Lightning8220658526
2022-23Tampa Bay Lightning769404910
2023-24Tampa Bay Lightning7813637618
2024-25Tampa Bay Lightning7915516618
2025-26Tampa Bay Lightning3311617-1
Career1 team1164172639811192