HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Anthony Cirelli

Tampa Bay Lightning · C · #71
Top-six playerTwo-Way Force?Scores while suppressing: Def Sup 0.80 plus 52 points
HT
6'1"
WT
193 lb
Age
29
Shoots
L
From
Etobicoke, CAN
Draft
2015 TBL · R3 #72
80Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
7575pctl
Playmaking?
7676pctl
Transition?
6060pctl
Defense?
8484pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.7380pctl
Goals / GP?
0.3282pctl
Assists / GP?
0.4177pctl
Shots / GP?
1.865pctl
Plus/Minus?
+3899pctl
PP Points?
450pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
8.4%82pctl
ZEIS?
2.2668pctl
PSPL?
0.2386pctl
Def Suppression?
0.8084pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP
Faceoff %?
48.2%42pctl
D-Zone FO %?
43.2%22pctl
Draws / GP
15.187pctl
Take : Give?
0.5085pctl
PP TOI / GP?
1:1356pctl
PK TOI / GP?
2:3898pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 46 GP tracked · 13h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
17.9 min90pctl
Support received?
18.9 min8pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 956 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$6.25M

cap hit

$7.61M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

B

Good value (+$1.4M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Anthony Cirelli80$6.25MB+$1.4Mthis player
Charlie Coyle79$5.25MA+$2.0M84%
Boone Jenner74$3.75MB+$1.9M76%
Shane Pinto78$3.75MA+$3.2M76%
Christian Dvorak75$5.40MC+$0.6M74%

Chemistry

Top connection: Brandon Hagel · 19 goals together

Recent form · last 10 games

4 pts · 4 G · 0 A · 14 shots in last 10Heating up(+0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs MIN

0P

0G 0A

vs SEA

1P

1G 0A

vs OTT

0P

0G 0A

vs NSH

0P

0G 0A

vs MTL

0P

0G 0A

vs PIT

3P

3G 0A

vs BOS

0P

0G 0A

@ MTL

0P

0G 0A

@ BOS

0P

0G 0A

vs DET

0P

0G 0A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)496 events shown

The office: the crease doorstep - 11 of 23 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 23 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 63 blocks · 11 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2017-18Tampa Bay Lightning18561111
2018-19Tampa Bay Lightning8219203925
2019-20Tampa Bay Lightning6816284428
2020-21Tampa Bay Lightning50913220
2021-22Tampa Bay Lightning7617264315
2022-23Tampa Bay Lightning5811182913
2023-24Tampa Bay Lightning792025452
2024-25Tampa Bay Lightning8027325930
2025-26Tampa Bay Lightning7123295238
Career1 team582147197344162