HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Brayden Point

Tampa Bay Lightning · C · #21
Top-six playerMiddle-Six Engine?Reliable minutes: 50 points and honest two-way play
HT
5'11"
WT
177 lb
Age
30
Shoots
R
From
Calgary, CAN
Draft
2014 TBL · R3 #79
82Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
7777pctl
Playmaking?
8383pctl
Transition?
7272pctl
Defense?
3131pctl

League profile

vs. forwards with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.7983pctl
Goals / GP?
0.2976pctl
Assists / GP?
0.5189pctl
Shots / GP?
2.073pctl
Plus/Minus?
+1287pctl
PP Points?
1172pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
10.5%90pctl
ZEIS?
2.7579pctl
PSPL?
0.2892pctl
Def Suppression?
0.2021pctl

Center toolkit

vs. centers with 20+ GP
Faceoff %?
45.8%27pctl
D-Zone FO %?
40.1%10pctl
Draws / GP
10.467pctl
Take : Give?
0.3241pctl
PP TOI / GP?
3:4798pctl
PK TOI / GP?
0:0218pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 44 GP tracked · 14h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
17.8 min77pctl
Support received?
18.8 min10pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs forwards · center = median · 910 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$9.50M

cap hit

$8.30M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

D

Paying a premium ($1.2M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Brayden Point82$9.50MD$1.2Mthis player
Dylan Cozens81$7.10MB+$0.9M87%
Trevor Zegras81$5.75MA+$2.2M87%
Roope Hintz82$8.45MC$0.2M86%
Evgeni Malkin87$6.10MA+$4.0M86%

Recent form · last 10 games

4 pts · 1 G · 3 A · 22 shots in last 10Heating up(+0.4 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs OTT

0P

0G 0A

vs NSH

0P

0G 0A

vs MTL

0P

0G 0A

vs PIT

1P

1G 0A

vs BOS

0P

0G 0A

@ BUF

1P

0G 1A

@ OTT

0P

0G 0A

@ MTL

0P

0G 0A

@ BOS

1P

0G 1A

vs DET

1P

0G 1A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)418 events shown

The office: the inner slot - 10 of 18 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 25 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 26 blocks · 3 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2016-17Tampa Bay Lightning681822404
2017-18Tampa Bay Lightning8232346618
2018-19Tampa Bay Lightning7941519227
2019-20Tampa Bay Lightning6625396428
2020-21Tampa Bay Lightning562325482
2021-22Tampa Bay Lightning66283058-5
2022-23Tampa Bay Lightning825144952
2023-24Tampa Bay Lightning81464490-16
2024-25Tampa Bay Lightning7742408217
2025-26Tampa Bay Lightning6318325012
Career1 team72032436168589