HockeyAlpha
Regular season

Ryan McDonagh

Tampa Bay Lightning · D · #27
Third-pair DSteady Blueliner?76 blocks across 48 games of regular duty
HT
6'1"
WT
216 lb
Age
37
Shoots
L
From
St. Paul, USA
Draft
2007 MTL · R1 #12
70Alpha?

Alpha sub-scores

what drives the rating · percentile vs position group
Scoring?
6262pctl
Playmaking?
4545pctl
Transition?
3434pctl
Defense?
6161pctl

League profile

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP
Points / GP?
0.4478pctl
Goals / GP?
0.1384pctl
Assists / GP?
0.3172pctl
Shots / GP?
0.826pctl
Plus/Minus?
+1483pctl
PP Points?
027pctl

HockeyAlpha advanced

event-derived proxies · 1,312 games analyzed
xG Share?
1.7%15pctl
ZEIS?
0.6811pctl
PSPL?
0.0414pctl
Def Suppression?
0.6473pctl

Defenseman toolkit

vs. defensemen with 20+ GP
Blocks / GP?
1.5874pctl
Blocks / 60?
4.9370pctl
Hits / 60?
1.221pctl
Take : Give?
0.3066pctl
PP TOI / GP?
0:0850pctl
PK TOI / GP?
3:0798pctl

On-ice impact

shift charts × our xG model · 36 GP tracked · 12h TOI

Usage profile

assignment difficulty · higher fill = tougher job
Competition faced?
17.6 min66pctl
Support received?
16.6 min75pctl

Micro-metrics

Structural Metric Model · sequences, geometry & leverage from every shot

2025-26 regular season · Percentile beams: fill = league percentile, tick = league median · hockeyalpha.com

The Blueprint

Structural Event Engine · percentile vs defensemen · center = median · 768 EV min

Derived from event sequences in public play-by-play data - the ? on each metric explains exactly how it's computed. · hockeyalpha.com

Contract & market

Contract value?

beta · cap data: CapWages

$6.75M

cap hit

$4.79M

Alpha-market value

overpaidmarketsurplus

D

Paying a premium ($2.0M)

Top comparables?

nearest profiles at the same role · match = statistical fit
PlayerAlphaCap hitValueMatch
Ryan McDonagh70$6.75MD$2.0Mthis player
Andrew Peeke67$2.75MB+$1.2M84%
Ryan Shea71$0.90MA++$4.2M82%
Esa Lindell72$5.25MC+$0.2M81%
Rasmus Sandin74$4.60MB+$1.5M81%

Chemistry

Top connection: Jake Guentzel · 5 goals together

Recent form · last 10 games

6 pts · 0 G · 6 A · 7 shots in last 10Steady(+0.0 P/GP vs prior 5)

vs OTT

0P

0G 0A

vs NSH

0P

0G 0A

vs MTL

1P

0G 1A

vs PIT

1P

0G 1A

vs BOS

1P

0G 1A

@ BUF

0P

0G 0A

@ OTT

1P

0G 1A

@ MTL

0P

0G 0A

@ BOS

1P

0G 1A

vs DET

1P

0G 1A

Tile tint = points that night · underline = shot volume (full bar = 8+ shots) · oldest on the left

The Territory

attacking → · every recorded touch, normalized to one end

attacking →← defending
Goal On goal Missed/blocked▲ takeaway▽ giveaway■ hit+ block◯ faceoff dot (size = wins)197 events shown

The office: the high slot - 2 of 6 goals live there

Playmaking gravity: 9 touches that produced a teammate shot within 3s

Defensive floor: 77 blocks · 9 steals inside the d-zone

NHL career · regular season

SeasonTeamGPGAP+/−
2010-11New York Rangers4018916
2011-12New York Rangers827253225
2012-13New York Rangers474151913
2013-14New York Rangers7714294311
2014-15New York Rangers718253323
2015-16New York Rangers739253426
2016-17New York Rangers776364220
2017-18New York Rangers49224267
2017-18Tampa Bay Lightning142131
2018-19Tampa Bay Lightning829374638
2019-20Tampa Bay Lightning50111127
2020-21Tampa Bay Lightning50481213
2021-22Tampa Bay Lightning714222615
2022-23Nashville Predators712182012
2023-24Nashville Predators743293219
2024-25Tampa Bay Lightning824273143
2025-26Tampa Bay Lightning486152114
Career3 teams105886355441303